A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2026.06.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1575
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1590
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.14%

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed positive dynamics. The main driver of the strengthening of the single European currency was the general weakening of the US dollar amid the diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The drop in global oil prices by more than 4% (to a two‑month low around 80 dollars per barrel) reduces the costs of the European economy. Since the Eurozone is a net importer of energy resources, cheaper commodities directly improve its trade balance and reduce stagflation risks. April industrial production data in the Eurozone showed a moderate increase of 0.1% month‑over‑month, fully matching analysts’ consensus expectation and confirming the resilience of the real sector to the spring shocks. At the moment, the short‑term interest rate swap market estimates the probability of another ECB rate hike by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on July 23, 2026, at only 18%. Investors believe that the imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the disinflationary impulse in the oil market will allow Christine Lagarde and her colleagues to pause in mid‑summer to assess the effect of the June hike.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1542, 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1586, 1.1617, 1.1630, 1.1651

The euro reached the resistance level of 1.1617 yesterday, where sellers took the initiative. The price is now consolidating below the EMA lines and below the 1.1586 level. The intraday bias favors sellers, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward 1.1559. Under such market conditions, sell trades are appropriate from 1.1586 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buy trades, we evaluate the price reaction at the 1.1559 level.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1559
• Res: 1.1586
• Note: Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.1559, but with confirmation. For sell trades, evaluate the price reaction at 1.1586 or the EMA lines.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3402
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3412
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.07%

Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil prices, the UK bond market experienced strong relief: the yield on 10‑year government bonds (Gilts) fell to 4.78%, updating the lowest level since April 17. Investors are pricing in a quick disinflationary effect from the US-Iran peace agreement. The decline in oil prices gives the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) more room to maneuver. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to keep the base rate at 3.75%. The vote will almost certainly be split: officials must balance accumulated inflation (around 4% since the beginning of the year) and clear signs of economic cooling (unemployment at 5% and a sharp slowdown in wage growth). The short‑term swap market has sharply reduced expectations for further tightening. Current prices imply only one more 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the end of 2026, and even that step is fully priced in only for the December meeting.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3390, 1.3336, 1.3309, 1.3252
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3417, 1.3445, 1.3459, 1.3483, 1.3507

The British pound corrected to the support level of 1.3390, where it is important to assess market participants’ reaction. If buyers show initiative here, this will open opportunities for intraday long positions with a target at 1.3417 and above. An impulsive consolidation below 1.3390 may trigger a sharp sell‑off toward 1.3336.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3390
• Res: 1.3417
• Note: Buy trades should be considered from the 1.3395 level, but with confirmation. An impulsive consolidation below 1.3390 may trigger a sharp sell‑off toward 1.3336.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 160.10
• Anterior Fechar: 160.31
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.13%

The Bank of Japan made a historic decision to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points – to 1.0%. This step confirmed the determination of the central bank’s head, Kazuo Ueda, to fight pro‑inflationary risks caused by the spring escalation in the Middle East and to protect the national currency from prolonged depreciation. The vote on the rate was not unanimous, revealing serious disagreements among board members regarding the sustainability of the national economy. Despite a local strengthening to 160 yen, global structural problems continue to pressure the Japanese currency. The main force restraining the yen’s long‑term recovery remains the speculative carry trade strategy. Investors continue to actively borrow in yen at a relatively low rate (now 1.0%), immediately converting the funds and placing them into high‑yield US dollar instruments. Since the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh keeps rates in the 3.5-3.75% range, the yield gap between the two countries remains critically high.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 160.05, 159.60, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65
• Níveis de resistência: 160.36, 160.53, 161.29

The Japanese yen continues to trade within the 160.05-160.35 range. For traders, it is best to focus on the rules of range trading – selling from the upper boundary and buying from the lower boundary. Under such market conditions, for sell trades we evaluate the price reaction at the upper boundary of 160.35. For buy trades, it is best to wait for a breakout above 160.35, since the price is in the upper part of the range.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 160.05
• Res: 160.35
• Note: For sell trades, evaluate the price reaction at the upper boundary of 160.35. For buy trades, it is best to wait for a breakout above 160.35.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 4265
• Anterior Fechar: 4308
• % de mudança no último dia: +1.01%

On Monday, the precious metals market saw strong upward movement: gold and silver rose sharply, closing the session at weekly highs. The rally was supported by a synchronous decline in the US dollar Index (DXY) to a weekly low and falling yields on global government bonds. The 4% collapse in oil prices (to $80 per barrel) due to progress in US-Iran negotiations sharply reduced global inflation expectations. Investors expect this to give central banks more room to shift toward a softer monetary policy, which traditionally increases the investment appeal of non‑yielding metals. A powerful long‑term fundamental factor for gold remains the actions of regulators. According to fresh data, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves by 320,000 ounces in May, bringing total holdings to 74.96 million troy ounces. This is the nineteenth consecutive month of purchases and the largest monthly increase in the past 17 months.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 4306, 4177, 4130, 4031, 3877
• Níveis de resistência: 4355, 4378, 4429, 4467

Gold is forming a flat accumulation range between 4306 and 4355. It is very important for buyers to hold the price above 4306; otherwise, there is a high probability of a decline to close Monday’s gap. But as long as the price is above 4306, intraday long positions can be considered from this level, provided buyers show a reaction. Profit targets remain at 4355 and 4378.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4306
• Res: 4355
• Note: Buy trades are considered from the 4306 level, but with confirmation. An impulsive breakout below 4306 may trigger a sharp sell‑off to close Monday’s gap.