A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2026.06.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1500
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1458
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.37%

The euro fell below the 1.15‑dollar mark, updating its lowest level since late March amid broad strengthening of the US currency. The main driver of the dollar’s rise was the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates unchanged but revised its projections: nine committee members now expect rate hikes by the end of 2026. This shift followed recent rate increases by the ECB and the Bank of Japan, while markets still price in at least one additional hike by the European regulator before year‑end. An additional factor was the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices to a three‑month low and reduced inflation concerns.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1452, 1.1523, 1.1559
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1415, 1.1383

Since the FOMC meeting, the euro has continued to weaken against the dollar. Technically, the local decline has turned into a full‑fledged downtrend. The price is breaking through nearby support levels with almost no buyer reaction. The intraday bias remains with sellers. Under such market conditions, sell trades are considered from the resistance level of 1.1452 or from the EMA lines. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy trades, although given the MACD divergence, a corrective rebound from nearby support levels is possible.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1415
• Res: 1.1452
• Note: Sell trades are considered from the resistance level of 1.1452 or from the EMA lines. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy trades.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3288
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3204
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.63 %

The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep the bank rate at 3.75%, with two committee members supporting an increase to 4%. The regulator was forced to balance the need to contain inflation with risks related to global energy market volatility due to Middle East tensions. Although energy prices have declined since the previous meeting, they remain high compared to pre‑conflict levels. Because of this, the Bank of England fears that the current 2.8% inflation rate may rise again toward year‑end, triggering secondary effects such as wage and price growth.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3126, 1.3093
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3179, 1.3251, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound, like the euro, is falling amid US dollar strength. At the moment, buyers are not reacting to support levels, increasing the likelihood of further decline. Within the downtrend, the most optimal approach is to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.3179 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy trades.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3126
• Res: 1.3179
• Note: Sell trades from the resistance level of 1.3179 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy trades.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 160.63
• Anterior Fechar: 161.37
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.46%

On Friday, the Japanese yen weakened above 161 per dollar, updating its lowest level since July 2024 and fully erasing the effect of Tokyo’s large‑scale FX intervention conducted on April 30. The decline occurred despite renewed verbal interventions from authorities: the Chief Cabinet Secretary confirmed the government’s readiness to respond promptly to excessive exchange‑rate fluctuations. The currency ignored these statements as well as the recent actions of the Bank of Japan, which earlier this week raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% to counter the inflation shock caused by rising energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. The main driver of yen weakness remains the widening divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the United States.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 161.19, 160.53, 160.20, 160.05, 159.60, 159.45
• Níveis de resistência: 162.00

USD/JPY quotes are moving toward new multi‑year highs. After consolidating above 161.19, the price now has all the prerequisites to update the 30‑year high at 162 yen per dollar. Traders should remain alert: on one hand, joining the uptrend via buy trades from 161.19 or from the EMA lines is appropriate, but with confirmation; on the other hand, Japanese authorities may intervene at any moment to support the currency, as they have done several times this year. Typically, FX interventions occur during the Asian session when market liquidity is low.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 161.19
• Res: 162.00
• Note: For buy trades, consider the support level of 161.19 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. FX intervention by Japanese authorities cannot be ruled out.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 4255
• Anterior Fechar: 4208
• % de mudança no último dia: -1.11%

Gold prices fell below 4,200 dollars per ounce, losing the gains accumulated earlier. The main pressure factor was the hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve: the regulator kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at a possible hike this year. Since rising borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets, investors began reducing their positions in precious metals. This macroeconomic factor outweighed the positive effect of the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran. Diplomatic progress allowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, which quickly lowered oil prices and eased global inflation concerns. Nevertheless, market participants remain cautious and avoid aggressive selling, understanding that full restoration of previous logistics chains and energy flows may take months.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 4130, 4031, 3877
• Níveis de resistência: 4177, 4198, 4355, 4378, 4429, 4467

Gold continues to decline amid US dollar strength, effectively correlating with all risk assets. Technically, the price has reached the support level of 4130, where buyers may show initiative. But since there is still no reaction, opening buy trades is premature, even though the price is strongly deviated from the moving averages. Despite this, sell trades remain more relevant, as the intraday bias favors sellers. The most optimal zones for opening sell trades are the resistance levels of 4177, 4198, or the EMA lines, but with confirmation.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4130
• Res: 4177
• Note: Sell trades are considered from 4177 or 4198, but with confirmation. For buy trades, the support level of 4130 can be considered only after buyers show initiative.