A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2026.07.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1377
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1430
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.46%

The euro rose to 1.145 USD, recovering after reaching yearly lows amid broad weakening of the US currency following disappointing US labor market data, where the number of jobs increased by only 57,000. Despite this, the growth potential of the European currency remains limited due to internal macroeconomic factors: June inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 2.8%, and core inflation fell to 2.4%, which was worse than expectations and increased pressure on the ECB’s stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking at the forum in Sintra, confirmed the regulator’s dovish tone, noting reduced risks for growth and inflation amid the normalization of energy prices after recent rate hikes.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1422, 1.1403, 1.1371, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1468, 1.1523, 1.1559

The euro consolidated above the EMA lines and above the flat range where the price had traded for the past 4 days. The intraday bias is currently on the buyers’ side, so the focus today is on long positions. For long trades, the EMA lines are the best area to consider, with a profit target at 1.1468. Considering the banking holiday in the US, the second half of the day will be low‑volatility.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 1.1422
• Res: 1.1468
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1422 or from the EMA lines. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.1468.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3270
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3345
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.56 %

The British pound strengthened to a two‑week high around 1.34 USD amid weak US labor market data, where the number of new jobs amounted to only 57,000. Combined with news of progress in indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran mediated by Qatar, this triggered a broad correction of the US dollar and contributed to lower oil prices, increasing risk appetite in global markets. Central bank leaders at the Sintra forum maintained a cautious tone, confirming their commitment to fighting inflation despite signs of slowing economic growth in the UK and the US Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged weakening inflation expectations and Andrew Bailey pointed to cooling in the British economy, both regulators currently rule out the possibility of imminent rate cuts, creating a complex balance for market participants.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3338, 1.3310, 1.3270, 1.3228, 1.3209
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3390, 1.3413, 1.3440

The British pound showed confident growth yesterday. The price is aiming to test the resistance level at 1.3390. Buyers have built support around 1.3338 – this level can be considered for opening intraday long positions. But considering the US banking holiday today, it is highly likely the price will not pull back to that level. Therefore, the EMA lines are the best area to consider for long trades.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 1.3338
• Res: 1.3390
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 1.3338 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short trades, evaluate price reaction above 1.3390.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 162.57
• Anterior Fechar: 161.09
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.92%

The Japanese yen is trading near 161 per dollar, showing a sharp rise of almost 1% after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed the authorities’ readiness for immediate intervention to protect the national currency. The market is in a state of heightened alert due to rumors that Japan may abandon the practice of prior notification of its actions, which has already triggered mass closing of short positions by speculators. An additional support factor for the yen was the weakening of the US dollar after disappointing US labor market data, which made investors question the necessity of further Fed rate hikes this year.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 161.79, 161.53, 160.20
• Níveis de resistência: 161.48, 162.05, 162.39, 162.59, 163.00

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply yesterday and reached the support level of 160.79, where previously opened short positions were closed. At the same time, the potential for further decline remains. Under such market conditions, intraday short trades are appropriate from the resistance level of 161.48 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For long trades, evaluate price reaction at 160.79 and 160.53.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 160.79
• Res: 161.48
• Note: For short trades, consider 161.48 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For long trades, evaluate price reaction at 160.79 and 160.53.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 4033
• Anterior Fechar: 4123
• % de mudança no último dia: +2.23%

Gold showed confident growth, surpassing 4200 USD per ounce. The main driver of the rally was market disappointment with US labor market data, where the number of jobs created in June amounted to only 57,000 versus expectations above 100,000. Weak statistics strengthened investors’ conviction that the Federal Reserve may adopt a softer stance, sharply reducing the probability of aggressive rate hikes in September. Additional support for the precious metal came from reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Progress in indirect negotiations between the US and Iran mediated by Qatar and normalization of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz led to falling oil prices.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 4030, 3972, 3884
• Níveis de resistência: 4093, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold has been rising confidently for the second day in a row. The price is aiming to test the liquidity zone above 4210. The intraday bias is on the buyers’ side, so the focus is only on long trades. Optimal entry points are the 4138 level or the EMA lines, but with confirmation in the form of a bullish reaction. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at the resistance level of 4210. But considering weak volatility today, the price will trade within the 4140-4180 range.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 4138
• Res: 4210
• Note: Intraday long trades are appropriate from 4138 or from the EMA lines, but only with confirmation. Profit targets are the liquidity zone above 4210.