A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2026.07.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1429
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1439
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.06%

The macroeconomic calendar for this week in the Eurozone shows cautious signs of recovery: German industrial production is expected to grow for the second consecutive month, and manufacturing orders are expected to begin recovering. At the same time, pressure on trade indicators persists: Germany’s trade surplus may shrink for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of geopolitical factors on exports. France is expected to see a narrowing of its trade deficit, while Italy is expected to show stable industrial production growth.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1422, 1.1403, 1.1371, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1468, 1.1523, 1.1559

The situation has hardly changed compared to Friday. The euro is trading in a flat range with boundaries at 1.1422-1.1468. The intraday bias is currently on the buyers’ side, so the focus today is on long positions. For long trades, the EMA lines or the 1.1422 level are the best areas to consider, but with confirmation. The profit target is the upper boundary at 1.1468. There are currently no optimal entry points for short trades.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 1.1422
• Res: 1.1468
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1422 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.1468.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3345
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3349
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.03 %

For the UK, the week is marked by important institutional events and market indicators. On Tuesday, the Bank of England will present its Financial Stability Report, which will assess the resilience of the banking system under current challenging economic conditions. The housing market is expected to show mixed signals: the Halifax Price Index may show year‑on‑year growth for the first time in four months, while RICS data will likely indicate a continued negative price balance, albeit with more moderate dynamics.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3338, 1.3310, 1.3270, 1.3228, 1.3209
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3390, 1.3413, 1.3440

The British pound continues forming a flat accumulation within the 1.3338-1.3390 range. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the flat, which may potentially open opportunities for long positions. If buyers react here, intraday long trades toward 1.3390 may be considered. A breakout of 1.3338 on impulse will open the way toward 1.3310.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 1.3338
• Res: 1.3390
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 1.3338 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. A breakout of 1.3338 on impulse will open the way toward 1.3310.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 161.02
• Anterior Fechar: 161.36
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.21%

The Japanese yen weakened to 162 per dollar, correcting roughly half of its strengthening achieved on July 2. Investors remain skeptical about the effectiveness of verbal interventions, despite Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama once again confirming the authorities’ readiness to intervene in the market at any moment to stabilize the exchange rate. Market participants note that the absence of real action from Tokyo reduces speculators’ fear of potential active measures.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 161.48, 161.79, 161.53, 160.20
• Níveis de resistência: 162.05, 162.39, 162.59, 163.00

The Japanese yen depreciated sharply on Monday at the open, consolidating above 161.48 and above the EMA lines. Today, the focus is on the resistance level at 162.05 – if sellers show initiative here, the yen may strengthen sharply, at least toward the EMA lines. In case of a breakout of 162.05, growth toward 162.39 is expected, where it is also important to evaluate the sellers’ reaction.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 161.48
• Res: 162.05
• Note: For short trades, consider the 162.05 level, but with confirmation. A breakout of 162.05 will open the way toward 162.39.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 4127
• Anterior Fechar: 4175
• % de mudança no último dia: +1.16%

Gold showed confident growth, reaching 4170 USD per ounce. This became the highest level since June 23 and marked the end of a four‑week decline, during which the asset recorded a weekly gain of 2%. The main driver of the rally was disappointing US labor market data, where the number of new jobs amounted to only 57,000 versus the expected 110,000. Weak statistics forced investors to revise expectations regarding Fed policy, resulting in the probability of a rate hike in September falling to 50%. Since gold does not yield interest, lower rate expectations and the accompanying weakening of the dollar made the precious metal more attractive to investors. Additional support came from central bank purchases, which increased their reserves by 41 tons of gold in May. Despite some cooling of demand in India due to high prices, interest from Chinese buyers remains stable.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 4138, 4105, 4030, 3972, 3884
• Níveis de resistência: 4210, 4273, 4323

Gold partially corrected toward the EMA lines, but the intra‑week bias remains on the buyers’ side. The most interesting levels are the support zones at 4138 and 4105. If the price reacts here with buyer initiative, intraday long opportunities will open in continuation of the upward movement. There are currently no optimal entry points for short trades.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 4138
• Res: 4210
• Note: Intraday long trades are appropriate from 4138 or 4105, but only with confirmation. Profit targets are the liquidity zone above 4210.