This week in the US, August employment data will show whether the sharp slowdown in the labor market, as evidenced by previous releases, is continuing. Data on non-farm employment, unemployment, wage growth, the ADP report, and JOLTS vacancies will provide fresh information. Weak data will increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which could have an additional negative impact on the US dollar. Key US data this week also includes the trade balance, which will assess the impact of tariffs. In Europe, key inflation data will be released in the Eurozone and Switzerland, while retail sales data will be published in the currency bloc along with the UK. Labour data is also expected in Canada. In Asia, Chinese PMI indices will show the impact of Beijing’s economic support.
Segunda-feira, September 01
Typically, Monday is an ordinary trading day with low volatility, but the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector may add volatility to the market. Stronger PMI figures could support the related currencies, while weakness in the manufacturing sector is likely to weigh on the currency. For traders, the key will be whether the actual data surpasses expectations, as this will largely determine the intensity and direction of market reactions. It’s a bank holiday in the United States and Canada.
Principais eventos do dia:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- China Caxin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Mexico Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Terça-feira, September 02
The main report on Tuesday will be Eurozone inflation data. The Eurozone CPI is closely watched by the ECB, which has recently emphasized the need to remain vigilant despite cooling inflation. A stronger-than-expected CPI print could reinforce expectations of rate stability or delay easing, thereby supporting the euro and vice versa. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is also one of the most influential real-time indicators of US economic health. While recent sentiment surveys indicate optimism for 2025 growth, continued weakness in the ISM PMI could trigger cautious sentiment regarding the US dollar (USD).
Principais eventos do dia:
- Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Quarta-feira, September 03
Wednesday brings pivotal insights into regional economic momentum and central bank sentiment. In Japan, service activity may be losing pace, warranting caution for the yen unless the data surprises positively. Australia’s GDP figure could either enhance confidence in the AUD if it is better than expected or reinforce caution in light of subdued growth. The US JOLTS report provides a glimpse into labor demand; continued softness could bolster Fed rate-cut expectations and weigh on the USD.
Principais eventos do dia:
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- China Caxin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Quinta-feira, September 04
Thursday presents a blend of trade, inflation, labor, and consumption data that could significantly sway investor sentiment and currency flows. In the Eurozone, after posting a 0.3% monthly gain in June, retail sales will serve as a critical barometer of consumer confidence and inflation pressure, with stronger-than-expected retail activity potentially lifting the euro. Meanwhile, in the US, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report stands as a key precursor to the official jobs data; a surprise upside could reinforce the dollar (USD), while a softer print would support growing expectations of Federal Reserve easing. Investors should also pay attention to trade balance data from the US, Canada, and Australia on Thursday. Australia’s trade balance, notably buoyed recently by surging exports to China and a widening surplus of AUD 5.37 billion in June, will be closely watched; another robust surplus may bolster the Australian dollar (AUD). Traders should also pay attention to the Natural Gas Storage data, which has a significant impact on natural gas prices. Gas storage is now fuller than usual, so the increase in indicators may have a negative impact on natural gas prices.
Principais eventos do dia:
- Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Sexta-feira, September 05
The US Nonfarm Payrolls data will become the most important Friday release for investors, potentially increasing volatility. This indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Forecasts indicate the creation of approximately 75,000 jobs, which is roughly in line with the previous month. Such a moderate pace may fuel speculation about a Fed rate cut and put pressure on the US dollar. Canadian labor market data will include the unemployment rate, which recently held steady at 6.9% despite a sharp decline in July job losses of 40,800 positions. This mixed picture continues to raise questions about employment resilience and potential easing by the Bank of Canada. For the Eurozone, second-quarter GDP is expected to post a modest 0.1% quarter-on-quarter gain, down sharply from 0.6% in the prior quarter, underscoring sluggish economic momentum that could temper euro (EUR) strength.
Principais eventos do dia:
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Este artigo reflete uma opinião pessoal e não deve ser interpretado como uma recomendação de investimento e/ou oferta e/ou um pedido persistente para a realização de transações financeiras e/ou uma garantia e/ou uma previsão de eventos futuros.