ภาพรวมการวิเคราะห์ของคู่สกุลเงินหลัก 2025.08.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

ตัวชี้วัดทางเทคนิคของคู่สกุลเงิน:

• ก่อนหน้า เปิด: 1.1403
• ก่อนหน้า ปิด: 1.1414
• % เปลี่ยนในช่วงวันสุดท้าย: +0.09 %

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will be a key test of the stability of the US labor market and could significantly influence the Fed’s immediate expectations. Consensus forecasts point to a slowdown in job creation: the number of jobs is expected to increase by 110,000 (compared to 147,000 last month), the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings are expected to accelerate slightly to 3.7% on an annualized basis. According to experts, the Fed remains heavily dependent on data, and labor market trends are a central factor in determining the trajectory of its policy. A softer-than-expected report is likely to revive bets on a rate cut in Q4 and put pressure on the US dollar, which could benefit the euro.

คำแนะนำการซื้อขาย

• ระดับแนวรับ: 1.1375, 1.1313
• ระดับแนวต้าน: 1.1445, 1.1503, 1.1550, 1.1612, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro is showing the first signs of consolidation. The price has broken below the 1.1445 level, and the MACD is signaling divergence. This increases the likelihood of a corrective rise, but it is very important to assess the price reaction to the liquidity zone above 1.1445. If sellers react here, it will open up opportunities to sell to 1.1375. If the impulse price breaks above 1.14545, it will open the way to 1.1503.

สถานการณ์ของทางเลือก:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1770 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

ตัวชี้วัดทางเทคนิคของคู่สกุลเงิน:

• ก่อนหน้า เปิด: 1.3235
• ก่อนหน้า ปิด: 1.3206
• % เปลี่ยนในช่วงวันสุดท้าย: -0.21 %

The latest economic data has reduced the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting. The odds of rates remaining unchanged are 61%, while the odds of a cut are 39%. In the UK, investors estimate an 80% probability that the Bank of England will cut rates to 4% at its August 7 meeting. Thus, the divergence between the two central banks suggests that the GBP/USD exchange rate may trend downward.

คำแนะนำการซื้อขาย

• ระดับแนวรับ: 1.3214, 1.3117
• ระดับแนวต้าน: 1.3241, 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bearish. The British pound has found support below 1.3214. There has been some consolidation of previously opened sales, while the MACD divergence has intensified. The likelihood of a corrective rise has increased even more, but it is important to assess the price action at the resistance level of 1.3241. If sellers react here, it will open up opportunities to sell down to 1.3137. But if the price breaks through 1.3241 impulsively, it will open the way for growth to 1.3313.

สถานการณ์ของทางเลือก:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3470 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

ตัวชี้วัดทางเทคนิคของคู่สกุลเงิน:

• ก่อนหน้า เปิด: 149.47
• ก่อนหน้า ปิด: 150.75
• % เปลี่ยนในช่วงวันสุดท้าย: -0.85 %

The Japanese yen fluctuated around 150.7 per dollar on Friday, remaining at a four-month low, as the dollar held steady after President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures. Trump confirmed the introduction of 10% global tariffs and imposed sharp retaliatory duties of up to 41% on countries that have not concluded trade deals, as well as 40% tariffs on transshipped goods, steps that have heightened tensions in global trade and increased demand for the dollar.

คำแนะนำการซื้อขาย

• ระดับแนวรับ: 150.46, 149.18, 148.54, 148.17, 147.94, 147.50, 146.83
• ระดับแนวต้าน: 151.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The yen fell sharply yesterday and dropped above 150. Currently, the price is forming a flat accumulation above 150.46, and buyers need to keep the price above this level. A false breakdown of 150.46 will open up opportunities for buy deals in continuation of the trend. An impulsive breakdown of 150.46 could trigger a sharp sell-off to 149.18, as the liquidity of “locked” buyers above 150.46 will begin to distribute lower.

สถานการณ์ของทางเลือก:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.86 and consolidates below it, there is a high probability that the downtrend will resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

ตัวชี้วัดทางเทคนิคของคู่สกุลเงิน:

• ก่อนหน้า เปิด: 3275
• ก่อนหน้า ปิด: 3290
• % เปลี่ยนในช่วงวันสุดท้าย: +0.45 %

On Friday, gold prices fluctuated around $3290 per ounce and showed their worst weekly performance since the end of June. Pressure on prices was exerted by the strengthening of the US dollar after President Trump introduced higher tariffs on several countries. Trump confirmed a 10% global base tariff and imposed retaliatory duties of up to 41% on countries that do not have trade agreements with the US. He also announced the introduction of 40% duties on goods suspected of being rerouted through third countries to circumvent existing tariffs. Meanwhile, US data showed that core and headline PCE prices exceeded expectations in June, heightening concerns about persistent inflation in key sectors of the economy and further complicating the prospects for a potential rate cut in September. Investors will now turn their attention to the July employment report, which is expected to provide new insight into the state of the labor market and help determine the Federal Reserve’s next move.

คำแนะนำการซื้อขาย

• ระดับแนวรับ: 3274
• ระดับแนวต้าน: 3302, 3331, 3351, 3377, 3401, 3438

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Gold is forming a flat accumulation below 3302. It is important for sellers not to let the price close above this level impulsively. In this scenario, the captured liquidity will be distributed to the nearest resistance level, which is 3331. If sellers react to 3302 with an initiative, we can look for sales up to 3274.

สถานการณ์ของทางเลือก:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3331 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.