This week, investors’ attention will focus on US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, where he will share his views on the future trajectory of interest rates. At the same time, critical inflation data will be released from the United Kingdom, Canada, the Eurozone, and Japan. Monetary policy decisions are also anticipated from China, Sweden, and New Zealand. Additionally, flash S&P Global PMI indices will be published for the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia.
วันจันทร์, August 18
The trading week will open with the Eurozone Trade Balance. Markets will closely monitor whether the region’s trade dynamics demonstrate resilience amid weaker global demand and lingering geopolitical risks. A stronger-than-expected surplus would signal healthier export performance, potentially supporting the euro.
เหตุการณ์สำคัญของวัน:
- Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).
วันอังคาร, August 19
Investors will focus primarily on Canadian inflation data on Tuesday. Analysts note that underlying inflation remains sticky despite headline moderation, particularly in core measures (CPI-trim, CPI-median) around ~3% YoY, near the upper bound of the Bank of Canada’s target. If the data comes in above forecast, it will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Canada may hold rates longer or delay easing, which is a preferable scenario for a stronger CAD. The US Building Permits is a forward indicator for housing activity. A stable or improving figure could support the narrative of sustained demand, tempering expectations for Fed easing.
เหตุการณ์สำคัญของวัน:
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
วันพุธ, August 20
Wednesday will be packed with important economic events. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)will hold their meetings. The PBoC’s key rate is expected to remain at 3.0% (1-year) and 3.5% (5-year). This signals a cautious monetary policy, which is moderately positive for the yuan and Chinese assets. In New Zealand, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 0.25% to 3.0%. The rate cut will reinforce expectations of policy easing, which could put pressure on the NZD. In the UK, inflation remains above target, with the annual CPI at 3.6%. The bank’s forecasts expect a peak of 3.7% by September, followed by a slight decline. Higher-than-expected growth will put pressure on the Bank of England to hold or delay rate cuts, which could strengthen the GBP. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will reveal information about dissenting members Waller and Bowman, who are expected to speak during the week.
เหตุการณ์สำคัญของวัน:
- Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
วันพฤหัสบดี, August 21
On Thursday, the annual meeting of politicians will begin in Jackson Hole. The Jackson Hole Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve, is one of the most closely watched central banking events of the year. Policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, may provide fresh signals on the future path of US interest rates, inflation risks, and global monetary policy coordination. Investors should also keep a close eye on the PMI data in the manufacturing and services sectors. These data show the health of the economy. As a rule, the growth of indicators is accompanied by a positive for the national currency and vice versa.
เหตุการณ์สำคัญของวัน:
- New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- Jackson Hole Symposium (Day 1).
วันศุกร์, August 22
Friday’s session will be dominated by inflation releases from Japan, as well as retail sales figures from the UK and Canada, before the market turns its full attention to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Core inflation in Japan is expected to decline from 3.3% to 3.2% year-on-year. The weak CPI index strengthens the case for maintaining accommodative policy from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), putting pressure on the Japanese yen. UK retail sales data is a key indicator of consumer activity amid stagnant inflation and rising borrowing costs. Strong data will support the British pound, indicating sustained household demand. Canada Retail Sales provides insight into domestic consumption trends, critical for the Bank of Canada’s policy stance. Data above expectations could strengthen CAD.
เหตุการณ์สำคัญของวัน:
- Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- Jackson Hole Symposium (Day 2).
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