Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2025.05.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1173
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1188
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.13 %

The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Growth was boosted by stronger domestic demand, weaker inflation and lower borrowing costs, and renewed optimism following Germany’s decision to ease fiscal restraints. Germany grew by 0.2% among the major economies, while Spain and Italy outperformed, posting gains of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. In contrast, France and the Netherlands performed more modestly, rising just 0.1% each.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1164, 1.1088, 1.1017, 1.0902
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1293, 1.1379

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The situation is almost unchanged compared to yesterday. Inside the day, the intraday bias is for the buyers. The support level of 1.1164 can be considered for buying but with confirmation as an initiative. The target for profit may be the level of priority change at 1.1293. The upper boundary of the narrowing triangle can be used for selling, provided sellers react.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1293 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3259
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3305
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.34 %

The British pound rose to $1.329 after stronger-than-expected GDP data signaled the resilience of the UK economy and reduced pressure for aggressive rate cuts. Growth came in above forecasts at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year, prompting traders to lower expectations about how much the Bank of England might cut interest rates this year.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3319, 1.3253, 1.3121
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3322, 1.3356, 1.3382

Regarding technical analysis, the currency pair GBP/USD trend on the hourly timeframe is bearish. The British pound is once again aiming to test the level of 1.3356. Intraday, assessing the price reaction to the 1.3319 support level is important. If the price impulsively dives below the level and consolidates below, it could trigger a sell-off in the pound. However, if the price remains above 1.3319, an upside move will be the priority today.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3356 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 146.66
• Öncekini Kapat: 145.67
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.68 %

The Japanese yen rose to 145 per dollar on Friday, rising for the fourth consecutive session, despite weaker-than-expected economic growth data. Japan’s economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, the first contraction in a year and worse than forecasts that suggested a 0.1% drop. Earlier this week, the Bank of Japan acknowledged that the economy’s growth rate is likely to slow due to the impact of US trade policies. However, the central bank maintained its view that rising wages and prices will support a further path towards policy normalization, which is helping to strengthen the yen.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 144.80, 144.43, 144.05
• Direnç seviyeleri: 145.71, 146.36, 148.28, 150.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish, but the price has approached the priority change level. It is important to evaluate the price reaction to the level of 144.80. If the buyers take the initiative, buying opportunities will open up to 145.71 and 146.36. If the price consolidates below 144.80, it will change the medium-term trend.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 144.80 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 3180
• Öncekini Kapat: 3240
• Son güne göre % değişim: +1.88 %

Gold fell to $3,170 per ounce on Thursday, extending its -2% decline from the previous session to a five-week low, as easing global trade tensions continue to dampen demand for safe-haven assets. The US and China agreed on significant tariff cuts and announced a 90-day pause to finalize a broader deal, while President Trump pointed to ongoing talks with India, Japan, and South Korea. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which tends to support non-income-producing assets.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 3193, 3151, 3103, 3049
• Direnç seviyeleri: 3266, 3347, 3370

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a downtrend. Yesterday the price reached the important support level of 3151, where the buyers showed a sharp initiative. Currently, the captured liquidity is distributed higher, and with high probability, the price will reach the resistance level of 3266. For buying, we can consider the support level of 3193. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 3266.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance level 3226, the uptrend is likely to resume.