Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2025.05.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1188
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1163
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.22 %

The euro traded near $1.12, rebounding from the one-month lows reached on May 12, when the US and China announced a 90-day truce accompanied by tariff cuts. While the tariff cuts initially sparked optimism that a broader de-escalation of the trade war was imminent, that enthusiasm has since faded and investors are now awaiting further developments. At the same time, renewed concerns about a possible slowdown in the US economy are weighing on the dollar. As for monetary policy, the European Central Bank is expected to continue reducing borrowing costs in June and possibly further.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1170, 1.1135, 1.1088, 1.1017, 1.0902
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1198, 1.1293, 1.1379

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. However, the intraday bias is currently in favor of the buyers. On Friday, the price fell below 1.1170, but then impulsively returned above the level, creating a locked balance. The 1.1170 support level can be considered for buying, but with confirmation in the form of initiative. Buying can also be considered after a breakout of the downtrend line. For selling, there are no optimal entry points right now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1293 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3303
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3281
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.17 %

This week the UK will publish a number of economic data. The main report will of course be the inflation report. According to the latest FactSet consensus, investors expect the UK CPI to have risen to 3% year-on-year in April, well above the 2.6% recorded in March and a full percentage point above the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target. For its part, the Bank of England expects that inflation is likely to rise once more due to year-on-year comparisons of energy prices after a brief period when inflation reached the 2% target in May 2024. This could temporarily support the British currency in the short term.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3319, 1.3253, 1.3121
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3322, 1.3356, 1.3382

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound is aiming to test the level of 1.3356. Intraday, it is important to assess the price reaction to the resistance level at 1.3326. If the price impulsively breaks the level and consolidates above it, it will open the way to a change in the medium-term trend. EMA lines can also be considered for buying. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3356 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 145.61
• Öncekini Kapat: 145.69
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.06 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 145 per dollar on Monday, marking the fifth consecutive session of gains, as the US dollar weakened after Moody’s downgraded its credit rating. The agency downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, citing a deteriorating fiscal outlook and a “lack of effective policy measures” to address the growing deficit. Domestically, the latest data showed Japan’s economy shrank in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP falling more than market expectations and the first economic contraction in a year.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 144.80, 144.43, 144.05
• Direnç seviyeleri: 145.46, 146.36, 148.28, 150.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish, but the price has approached the priority change level. Currently, it is important to evaluate the price reaction to the level of 144.80. If the buyers take the initiative in the range of 144.80-145.46, it will open up buying opportunities up to 145.45 and 146.36. If the price consolidates below 144.50, it will change the medium-term trend.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 144.50 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 3239
• Öncekini Kapat: 3201
• Son güne göre % değişim: -1.18 %

Bullion prices fell more than 3% last week, its worst weekly performance since November, as heightened risk appetite due to the US-China trade deal pressured the market. However, gold rose above $3220 an ounce on Monday. The appetite for safe-haven assets is driven by growing concerns about the outlook for the US economy and budget deficit. On Friday, Moody’s Ratings downgraded the US government’s credit rating.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 3201, 3151, 3103, 3049
• Direnç seviyeleri: 3266, 3347, 3370

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish, but the conditions for reversal of the medium-term trend are being created. Today, at the opening, the price impulsively closed above 3201, thus a locked balance was formed below the level. Currently, the way to 3266 is open for the price. For buying, we can consider the support level 3202 or EMA lines. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance level 3226, the uptrend will likely resume.