Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2025.06.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1656
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1700
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.38 %

The euro continued to strengthen, exceeding the $1.17 mark and reaching a new high for 2021, helped by the general weakening of the dollar. The truce between Iran and Israel remains in place, boosting risk sentiment, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged after reports that President Trump is considering appointing the next Fed chair ahead of schedule, putting pressure on the dollar. At the same time, NATO’s decision to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035 has raised expectations that countries, particularly Germany, will increase borrowing to achieve these goals. In the fiscal sphere, Germany has approved its budget for 2025 and its budget framework for 2026, which include record investment plans aimed at stimulating growth.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518, 1.1471, 1.1445, 1.1373
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1913

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro has consolidated above 1.1694, which potentially opens the way for the price to reach 1.1913 on higher time frames. Given the MACD divergence, the price is likely to correct to the EMA lines to the 1.1666 area. For buy deals in continuation of the trend, consider the level of 1.1666 or 1.1642, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for sales at this time.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1446 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3662
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3728
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.49 %

The UK Retail Sales Index, calculated by the Confederation of British Industry, fell sharply to 46 in June 2025 from 27 in May, marking the ninth consecutive monthly decline and falling well below expectations. However, this had virtually no impact on the pound’s growth. The pound rose above $1.374, its highest since October 2021, thanks to the weakening of the US dollar. The dollar fell amid concerns about the independence of the Fed and speculation that President Trump may soon name a successor to Chairman Powell, which would increase the likelihood of an earlier rate cut. In the UK, BoE Governor Bailey cited signs of a weakening labor market, including slowing wage growth and rising inactivity.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3698, 1.3652, 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3748

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. Currently, there is some profit-taking, which is leading to the formation of a flat. For buy deals in continuation of the trend, it is best to consider the EMA lines or the support level of 1.3698. There are no optimal entry points for sales at this time.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3470 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 145.19
• Öncekini Kapat: 144.40
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.54 %

On Friday, the Japanese yen held steady at 144.3 per dollar, close to two-week highs, as the US dollar came under pressure amid growing expectations of deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The change in sentiment followed reports that President Donald Trump may announce his choice for the next Fed chair as early as September or October, which could steer monetary policy in a more dovish direction. In Japan, investors assessed data showing a slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo in June, although it still significantly exceeds the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, supporting expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 144.36, 143.64
• Direnç seviyeleri: 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has changed downward. The price managed to consolidate below the priority change level. Currently, the price is correcting amid profit-taking. This is also confirmed by the MACD divergence. Sell trades should be considered from the EMA line or from the resistance level of 144.96. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy deals.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 145.95 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 3333
• Öncekini Kapat: 3327
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.18 %

On Friday, gold fell to $3,300 per ounce, approaching its lowest level in nearly four weeks, despite the weakening dollar, as investors continued to assess the prospects for a Fed rate cut. The US President Trump noted that a new Fed chair could be appointed as early as September, which would reduce Powell’s influence before the end of his term and strengthen the influence of the future candidate. Trump is expected to favor a dovish Central Bank chair because the president is calling for lower rates, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets in the form of bullion. In terms of data, US GDP was revised down to a 0.5% contraction in the second quarter, further supporting dovish expectations, although this was offset by a drop in jobless claims to a five-week low and an increase in durable goods orders to their highest level in 11 years.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 3293, 3272, 3246
• Direnç seviyeleri: 3312, 3350, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is downward. The price has consolidated below the support level of 3312 and has fallen to the liquidity zone below 3293. Here, a rebound to the nearest resistance level is highly likely. However, buyers should be cautious, as these will be trades against the medium-term bias. It is best to wait for a correction and look for sell trades from the EMA lines or from the resistance level of 3312.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 3393, the upward trend will likely resume.