Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2025.09.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1810
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1787
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.19 %

Yesterday, the euro came under pressure from a strengthening dollar. In addition, fiscal problems are weighing on the euro after the German government said on Thursday that it would borrow 20% more than originally planned in the fourth quarter to help finance a sharp increase in infrastructure and military spending. The euro’s losses are being held in check by diverging central bank stances, as markets believe the ECB has largely completed its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates about twice more before the end of this year. Swaps price in a 2% chance of the ECB cutting rates by 25 basis points at its October 30 meeting.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1746, 1.1704
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1784, 1.1809, 1.1858, 1.1915

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend remains bullish, but the intraday bias has shifted in favor of sellers. For the rally to continue, we need to see a locked balance form below the support level. The price is currently testing liquidity below 1.1746. Intraday, we can consider selling up to this level. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1704 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3624
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3553
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.52 %

The British pound has consolidated above $1.36. It is trading near its strongest level since early July after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged and took a cautious tone regarding further policy moves. Policymakers kept the bank rate at 4%, but warned that risks to medium-term inflation remain significant. They emphasized that monetary policy has no predetermined course and that the timing and pace of policy easing will depend on how quickly underlying disinflationary pressures ease. This stance contrasts with the more dovish approach of the US Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected, with a further 50 basis points expected by the end of the year.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3501, 1.3486
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3660, 1.3713

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish but is close to a potential reversal. The price is testing the priority change level, and if buyers do not show activity here, a medium-term reversal is likely to occur. Buy trades should be considered if the price consolidates above 1.3530. Selling is not recommended at this time, as the price is approaching the support level.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3501 and settles below it, the downward trend is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 146.93
• Öncekini Kapat: 147.97
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.71 %

On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened above 147.5 per dollar, ending a two-day decline after the Bank of Japan, as expected, left its key rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time. The central bank said the economy is recovering at a moderate pace but pointed to weaknesses and warned of risks related to global trade policy. It also announced a unanimous decision to start selling its ETFs and J-REITs. Meanwhile, data showed that core inflation in Japan was 2.7% in August, falling for the third consecutive month to its lowest level since November 2024.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 147.49, 147.14, 146.82, 146.25, 145.85
• Direnç seviyeleri: 148.05

From a technical perspective, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish, however, the intraday bias is bullish. The price tested the priority change level of 148.05, but sellers responded with initiative. Currently, attention is focused on the support level of 147.49. If buyers hold the level, it is possible to switch to buying to break through the priority change level. If the price consolidates below 147.49, a strong sell-off of the dollar against the yen may occur.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.05 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 3662
• Öncekini Kapat: 3646
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.43%

On Friday, the price of gold hovered around $3640 per ounce, retaining most of its two-day decline. Markets continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s forecasts after the central bank cut its base rate for the first time since December, leaving room for further cuts. However, policymakers warned that persistent inflation could slow the pace of any future cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell also described the move as a measured response to the cooling labor market, stressing that the central bank does not intend to accelerate the easing cycle and will proceed cautiously. According to official data from other countries, gold exports from Switzerland to China increased by 254% in August compared to July.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 3637, 3615, 3600
• Direnç seviyeleri: 3700

From the technical analysis perspective, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has corrected to the support level of 3637. Here, you can consider buying trades, as buyers have taken the initiative. A breakdown and consolidation below this level will open up opportunities to sell to the priority change level of 3615.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 3615 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.