Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2025.09.22

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1778
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1744
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.29 %

On Friday, the euro fell below $1.1750 as the dollar strengthened after the FOMC decision. As expected, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and signaled an additional 50 basis point cut by the end of the year. However, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that this cut was “risk management” rather than the start of a new easing cycle. In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting last week, suggesting that the cycle of rate cuts may be coming to an end. Eurozone inflation fell to 2.0% in August 2025, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 2.1%.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1704
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1758, 1.1790, 1.1809, 1.1825, 1.1858

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish, but the intraday bias remains with the sellers. An SMT divergence is forming between the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments (this is when one instrument updates its high or low, while the other does not). As a rule, such a divergence is a harbinger of a reversal in movement. For the rally to continue, we need to see a locked balance form below the support level of 1.1758. Consolidation above this level will open up opportunities for buying. Currently, the price is trying to test the priority change level of 1.1704.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1704 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3550
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3468
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.61 %

The British pound fell to $1.35, a two-week low, after UK borrowing data sharply exceeded expectations. Net borrowing by the public sector reached £18 billion in August, the highest figure in five years and significantly exceeding expectations of £12.7 billion. Borrowing for the first five months of the fiscal year reached £83.8 billion, £11.4 billion higher than the OBR’s March projections, with previous months revised upward by £5.9 billion. The figures add further pressure ahead of the autumn budget amid global concerns about sovereign debt, which recently pushed 30-year gilt yields to record highs.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3450, 1.3398
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3493, 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3635, 1.3713

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD has shifted to a downtrend. However, the formation of SMT divergence between EUR/USD and GBP/USD could lead to a deep correction or a rapid reversal. Buy trades should be considered if the price consolidates above 1.3493. Selling is not recommended at this time, as the price is approaching the support level.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3635 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 147.91
• Öncekini Kapat: 147.97
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.04 %

On Monday, the yen fell below 148 per dollar, continuing the decline that began last week. On Friday, as expected, the Bank of Japan left its base rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time. The Central Bank noted that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace, but pointed to some weaknesses and warned of risks related to global trade policy. It also unanimously approved plans to start selling its ETFs and J-REITs, signalling a slight shift in asset support. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the latest PMI and inflation data from Tokyo, as well as the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting, which may provide insight into the Central Bank’s immediate plans.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 147.80, 147.46, 147.14, 146.86
• Direnç seviyeleri: 148.76, 148.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has changed to upward. The price has consolidated above the priority change level of 148.18. It is very important for buyers to keep the price above this level, as an impulsive return below 148.18 will trigger a sell-off to 147.80 and below. If buyers hold the level, it will be possible to switch to buying with a target of 148.76.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the support level of 146.86 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 3647
• Öncekini Kapat: 3684
• Son güne göre % değişim: +1.01%

On Monday, gold prices rose to around $3,690 per ounce, hovering near record highs. Last week, the Fed cut rates for the first time this year and signaled that further cuts are possible in the future due to the weakening labor market. Markets are currently pricing in two more 25 basis point cuts this year, one in October and one in December, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing being a major factor in gold’s 40% price increase since the beginning of the year. Gold is also supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, as well as active purchases by central banks and steady inflows into ETFs.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 3672, 3637, 3615, 3600
• Direnç seviyeleri: 3700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold is aiming to renew its historical high. However, given the SMT divergence between gold and silver, there is a high probability of a corrective movement. For sell deals, the resistance level of 3700 can be considered, provided there is a reaction from sellers. Buy deals should be considered from the support level of 3672 or after an impulse consolidation above 3700.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 3615 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.