Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2025.11.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1582
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1592
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.09 %

On Wednesday, the euro held above $1.158. The European currency is supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged in the near term, relying on steady economic growth and inflation approaching the 2% target. Money markets currently estimate the probability of the first rate cut by September 2026 at around 40%. In the US, by contrast, expectations of Fed easing are growing. Recent macroeconomic data point to weakening domestic activity. All this strengthens market confidence that the Federal Reserve may cut rates as early as December, which adds pressure on the dollar and supports the euro in the medium term.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1569, 1.1542, 1.1520, 1.1497, 1.1462, 1.1392
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish, but market conditions are forming for a reversal. The price is consolidating in the 1.1569-1.1605 range. Intraday, buying opportunities can be sought from the lower boundary with a target of 1.1605. If the price consolidates below 1.1569, it would indicate buyers are gone and the price will likely fall to 1.1542.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3154
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3132
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.17 %

On Wednesday, the British pound weakened to $1.3125 as political uncertainty and tense expectations ahead of the budget weighed on the currency. Reports of a failed attempt to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership raised investor concerns just two weeks before the Autumn Budget presentation. Allies of the prime minister warned that any internal political turmoil could push up government bond yields and increase pound volatility. An initially weak labor market report reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates in December, with futures now pricing in about an 80% probability of such a move.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3095, 1.3072
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3155, 1.3185, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The pound is trading weaker than the euro. Yesterday, the price fell to support at 1.3095, where buyers reacted. However, the price remains below the EMA lines and the descending trendline. For buying, a breakout and consolidation above the trendline is needed. Otherwise, the price will continue sliding lower.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 154.10
• Öncekini Kapat: 154.76
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.42 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen traded around 154.7 per dollar, near a nine-month low, following statements by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urging the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates to support economic recovery. The prime minister also instructed Governor Kazuo Ueda to provide regular updates to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy to ensure coordination between the government and the central bank. In the futures market, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the Bank of Japan is estimated at 24% in December and 46% in January, reflecting investor caution about the pace of policy normalization.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 154.36, 153.58, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• Direnç seviyeleri: 155.02, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. Yesterday, the price impulsively consolidated above 154.49 and reached resistance at 155.02. Sellers’ reaction was moderate, increasing the likelihood of further growth. A breakout above 155.02 will open the path to 156.54. Buying opportunities can be considered from EMA lines on pullbacks or support at 154.49, but with confirmation.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 4130
• Öncekini Kapat: 4196
• Son güne göre % değişim: +1.59%

On Thursday, gold prices rose above $4,200 per ounce, reaching the highest level in more than three weeks amid ongoing uncertainty about US economic prospects and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve easing. The market was supported after President Donald Trump signed the funding bill, officially ending the longest US government shutdown in history and allowing agencies to resume operations. However, the White House warned that official employment and inflation reports for October may be delayed, adding uncertainty to economic assessments. At the same time, private labor market data indicate that US companies continue to cut jobs, confirming employment weakness and strengthening expectations of further rate cuts.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 4184, 4148, 4100, 4083, 4046, 4019, 3965
• Direnç seviyeleri: 4246, 4379

Technically, the medium-term is bullish. After rebalancing, the price continued its rally, breaking resistance at 4162. The path to 4246 is now open. For buying, support at 4184 or 4148 is best considered, but with confirmation. No optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks support at 3965 and consolidates below, the downward trend will likely resume.