Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2026.04.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1521
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1541
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.17%

In the first half of the day, the US dollar came under heavy pressure due to a combination of weak US macroeconomic data (the ISM Services Index fell more sharply than expected) and Axios diplomatic leaks about preparations for a 45‑day ceasefire. This triggered a wave of unwinding defensive positions in the dollar, but the euro’s recovery was limited by the holiday lull in Europe and a surge in oil prices to four‑week highs, which traditionally worsens the Eurozone’s trade balance. The situation changed dramatically in the second half of the day, when the dollar regained nearly all its losses following a sharp statement from Donald Trump. The threat of immediate escalation and strikes on Iranian targets if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by Tuesday evening brought the risk premium back into the market. Against this backdrop, the probability of a 25‑basis‑point ECB rate hike on April 30 stabilized at 50%, reflecting the regulator’s indecision.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1560, 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The euro continues to move sideways within the 1.1511-1.1560 range: the price reached the upper boundary, where sellers took the initiative. The pair is now trading in the middle of the range, making it difficult to find good entry points. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered from 1.1511, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. For short positions, EMA lines can be used intraday toward the lower boundary of the range.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1511
• Res: 1.1560
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1511 with confirmation. For short positions, EMA lines can be used intraday toward the lower boundary of the range.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3187
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3233
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.35%

The British pound consolidated near the 1.32 level, reaching its lowest point since late November last year. Pressure on sterling is driven not only by oil prices surging to multi‑year highs, but also by a sharp shift in rate expectations: before the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” markets expected two Bank of England rate cuts, whereas in April 2026, traders are pricing in two hikes. Strong US labor‑market data (178,000 new jobs) convinced investors that the Fed will not cut rates this year, creating a fundamental imbalance in favor of the USD. The only factor preventing a deeper collapse of the pound is the news about preparations for a 45‑day ceasefire, but until real progress is made, sterling will continue to look “heavy” under the weight of imported inflation.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3179, 1.3125
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3252, 1.3322, 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound largely mirrors the euro. The currency continues to trade within the 1.3179-1.3254 range near the EMA lines. Yesterday, the price reached the upper boundary of the corridor, where sellers took the initiative. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered from 1.3179, but only with confirmation of buyer initiative. For short positions, EMA lines can be used intraday toward the lower boundary of the range.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3179
• Res: 1.3252
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.3179 with confirmation. For short positions, EMA lines can be used intraday toward the lower boundary of the range.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 159.59
• Öncekini Kapat: 159.67
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.05%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen once again approached the 160‑per‑dollar level, putting the market on high alert for potential currency intervention from Tokyo. Pressure on the national currency is driven by a disastrous combination of factors for Japan: an extremely strong US dollar and soaring energy prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran officially rejecting the ceasefire proposal and Trump’s deadline expiring today, investors are actively pricing in the risk of a full‑scale energy war, making the yen extremely vulnerable as the currency of a resource‑importing nation. Diplomatic efforts by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who plans to hold talks with leaders of Iran and the US, have not yet been reflected in market prices, as traders remain skeptical about the prospects for peace before the ultimatum expires.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 159.22, 158.31, 157.87, 157.32
• Direnç seviyeleri: 159.60, 159.97, 160.46, 161.29

The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the dollar. The main liquidity pool above 159.97 may be tested today, making it crucial to evaluate the price reaction: if sellers show initiative, intraday short positions may be considered toward the intermediate level of 159.60 or lower. But if sellers fail to react to liquidity above 159.97, the price may break higher impulsively, opening the path toward 160.46.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.22
• Res: 159.97
• Note: Short positions are appropriate from 159.97 if sellers show initiative. An impulsive breakout above 159.97 opens the path toward 160.46.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 4658
• Öncekini Kapat: 4650
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.17%

On Monday, gold showed partial recovery, rising toward 4680 dollars per ounce amid a temporary weakening of the dollar. Diplomatic efforts through Pakistani intermediaries gave the market a brief pause from aggressive liquidations. The main limiting factor remains the resilience of the US economy: March labor‑market data (178,000 new jobs) and unemployment at 4.3% reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its “higher for longer” restrictive policy. While Trump’s ultimatum and the risk of strikes on Iranian infrastructure provide geopolitical support, the prospect of a stronger dollar and higher bond yields undermines gold’s investment appeal.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 4553, 4528, 4304, 4169
• Direnç seviyeleri: 4700, 4801

The fundamental backdrop currently works against the “yellow metal.” Technically, gold is forming a sideways accumulation pattern, with resistance at 4700 acting as the upper boundary. Intraday bias favors sellers, so EMA lines may be used for short positions with a target near the 4553 support level. Long positions become relevant only if the price breaks above 4700 impulsively – in that case, the path toward 4800 opens.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4553
• Res: 4700
• Note: Short positions are appropriate from 4700 or from EMA lines with confirmation. Long positions become relevant if the price breaks above 4700 impulsively.