Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2026.05.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1689
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1693
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.03%

The euro stalled around 1.17 dollars, caught in the crossfire of harsh geopolitical and trade challenges from the United States. A new blow to European markets came from Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on European car imports to 25%, accusing Brussels of violating trade agreements, as well as his order to withdraw five thousand US troops from Germany. This move deepened the rift between Washington and Berlin amid Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s criticism of the US strategy in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the European currency finds support in the ECB’s hawkish stance. Against the backdrop of inflation jumping to 3% and record‑high oil prices due to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, the regulator is signaling readiness to act. Hawkish statements from key board members, including Joachim Nagel, Madis Müller, and Peter Kažimír, convinced the market of the inevitability of a rate hike at the June meeting, with investors pricing in more than three rounds of tightening by year‑end.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1711, 1.1681, 1.1559, 1.1605
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1741, 1.1776, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

Euro consolidated above the EMA lines and reached the resistance level of 1.1741. There is no seller initiative, which increases the likelihood of further growth. A breakout of 1.1741 will open the path toward 1.1776. In case of a pullback, long positions may be considered from 1.1711, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1711
• Res: 1.1741
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1711 with confirmation. No optimal selling points at the moment.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3531
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3540
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.07%

The British pound corrected slightly above 1.35 dollars, retreating from the two‑month high of 1.366 dollars. Investor attention shifted to domestic politics: on Thursday, the UK will hold large‑scale local elections, where the ruling Labour Party of Prime Minister Keir Starmer is predicted to suffer a serious defeat amid record‑low approval ratings. Political uncertainty inside the country is prompting traders to act cautiously and lock in profits on the pound. Under these conditions, the Bank of England kept the rate at 3.75%, but Governor Andrew Bailey called the decision a “difficult choice.” He openly warned that delaying monetary tightening could leave the central bank in a catch‑up position, where controlling an inflation shock becomes much harder.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3565, 1.3514, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3602, 1.3631, 1.3670

Pound consolidated above the EMA lines and above 1.3565. The price is heading toward a liquidity test above 1.3602. Under such market conditions, intraday focus should be on buying. An impulsive breakout of 1.3602 will open the way toward 1.3631. There are currently no optimal selling points.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3565
• Res: 1.3602
• Note: Consider intraday long positions targeting 1.3602 and higher. No optimal selling points at the moment.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 157.17
• Öncekini Kapat: 157.87
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.44%

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on Wednesday by 0.60%. According to rumors, Japanese authorities conducted another currency intervention, although no official statement was made. Traders’ concerns are justified – without continued active action from the Ministry of Finance, it is extremely difficult to hold the currency in the face of a strengthening dollar. The yen is traditionally highly sensitive to the energy sector due to Tokyo’s total dependence on Middle Eastern oil supplies.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 155.49, 154.86
• Direnç seviyeleri: 157.29, 157.75, 158.55

Yen strengthened sharply again due to intervention. This is evident from the volume that flows in during the sharp move. After the price consolidated above 157.30 yesterday – a key resistance level — the path toward 159 opened, which apparently did not suit the Japanese government. After the intervention, the currency updated the monthly low and tested the liquidity pocket below 155.40. With high probability, the price will enter a flat phase again to accumulate new liquidity, which is heavily drained after interventions.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 155.49
• Res: 157.29
• Note: After intervention, it is better to refrain from trading the yen.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 4523
• Öncekini Kapat: 4556
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.73%

On Wednesday, gold prices rose for the second session in a row, climbing above 4640 dollars per ounce. Falling oil prices helped ease investor concerns about inflation and reduced pressure on the precious‑metals market, which is sensitive to monetary‑policy expectations. Optimism was fueled by statements from US officials confirming the stability of the ceasefire. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the agreement reached a month ago is being observed, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the end of offensive operations and the shift of forces to maritime patrols. Before this de‑escalation, gold had been under strong selling pressure. The rapid rise in oil prices since the start of the conflict heightened global inflation risks, leading markets to prepare for a prolonged period of high interest rates.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 4611, 4554, 4518
• Direnç seviyeleri: 4658, 4697, 4772

Gold surged sharply on Wednesday and reached the resistance level of 4658. No seller reaction is observed, which increases the likelihood of growth toward 4697. Given that the price has deviated significantly from the EMA lines, it is better to wait for a pullback to 4611 or to the moving averages before buying. There are currently no optimal selling points.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4611
• Res: 4658
• Note: Long positions are possible from 4611 if buyers show bullish initiative. No optimal selling points at the moment.