Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2026.05.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1692
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1746
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.46%

The euro continued to strengthen, approaching the 1.18‑dollar level and reaching its highest point since late April, amid weakening demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. This is due to growing expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran: according to reports, the sides are close to signing a framework document that could mark the beginning of conflict resolution and nuclear‑program negotiations. Against this backdrop, markets have slightly revised expectations for European Central Bank policy, lowering projections for the pace of tightening. Investors now price in about two rate hikes by the end of the year, with a high probability of the first step already in June. At the same time, ECB officials continue to point to persistent inflationary pressure, which supports expectations of further tightening.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1741, 1.1724, 1.1695, 1.1559, 1.1605
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1776, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro reached the liquidity zone above 1.1791 yesterday, where sellers showed initiative. This led to a correction toward the EMA lines, but it is too early to speak of a full reversal. Under such market conditions, long positions may be considered from support levels 1.1741 or 1.1724, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal selling points.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1741
• Res: 1.1776
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1741 or 1.1724 with confirmation. No optimal selling points at the moment.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3539
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3591
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.38%

The pound strengthened above 1.36 dollars, reaching its highest level since mid‑February amid declining demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. This is due to rising optimism around a possible resolution of the conflict between the US and Iran: according to media reports, the sides are close to an agreement that could form the basis for ending the confrontation and starting nuclear‑program negotiations. Additional investor attention is focused on UK domestic politics, particularly the upcoming local elections, the results of which may influence the balance of power.

In terms of monetary policy, expectations have become more moderate: the market now prices at about two rate hikes by year‑end instead of the more aggressive scenario considered earlier.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3581, 1.3563, 1.3514, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3637, 1.3670

An SMT divergence has formed between the British pound and the euro – when one instrument updates an extreme and the other does not. Statistically, such divergences lead to a correction or reversal. At the moment, the pound has corrected to the support level of 1.3581, but the buyer reaction is weak, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction toward 1.3563. Long positions may be considered from 1.3581 or 1.3563, but with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. There are currently no optimal selling points.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3581
• Res: 1.3637
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3581 or 1.3563 with confirmation. No optimal selling points at the moment.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 157.78
• Öncekini Kapat: 156.32
• Son güne göre % değişim: –0.93%

On Thursday, the Japanese yen traded near 156 per dollar after rising about 1% in the previous session, which market participants mostly attributed to possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Although the Ministry of Finance did not officially confirm currency intervention, government officials had earlier warned of readiness to take strong measures against speculative pressure on the currency, especially during the holiday “Golden Week.” At the same time, falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced the likelihood of tighter policy from the US Federal Reserve.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 155.49, 154.86
• Direnç seviyeleri: 156.58, 157.29, 157.75, 158.55

The yen predictably moved into a flat range after government intervention. At the moment, the price is trapped in the 155.60–156.58 area. Expansion of this range is not excluded. Under such market conditions, intraday short positions may be considered from 156.58, but only after confirmation in the form of a false breakout and seller initiative. The lower zone 155.49–155.60 also shows reaction.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 155.49
• Res: 156.58
• Note: Short positions may be considered from 156.58 with confirmation. Long positions may be sought from the 155.49–155.60 zone, also with confirmation.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 4557
• Öncekini Kapat: 4690
• Son güne göre % değişim: +2.91%

On Wednesday, gold continued rising for the second session in a row, surpassing 4700 dollars per ounce. Prices were supported by signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, which led to falling oil prices and reduced inflation concerns. Optimism strengthened amid reports of a possible agreement between the US and Iran that could end the conflict and resume nuclear negotiations. It is expected to include restrictions for Iran in exchange for gradual sanctions relief. Earlier, Washington also indicated readiness to avoid further escalation. Before this de‑escalation, gold had been under pressure, as rising energy prices increased inflation risks and supported expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 4660, 4611, 4554, 4518
• Direnç seviyeleri: 4720, 4772

Gold rose to 4720 per ounce, and the price is now forming a flat accumulation range with boundaries 4660-4720. Seller initiative from 4720 is weak, so the probability of continued growth is high. Under such market conditions, long positions may be sought from 4660 with confirmation, or after a breakout of 4720. There are currently no optimal selling points.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4660
• Res: 4720
• Note: Long positions are possible from 4660 with buyer reaction. Long positions are also appropriate after a breakout of 4720 on impulse. No optimal selling points at the moment.