Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2026.06.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1359
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1369
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.09%

On Thursday, the currency pair posted a slight increase amid local dollar weakness and profit‑taking. An additional strong support factor for the euro was the drop in global oil prices to a four‑month low near $69 per barrel, as the Eurozone economy is critically dependent on energy imports, and cheaper crude reduces stagflation risks. However, the euro’s upside potential in the first half of the day was significantly limited by weak German macroeconomic data: the leading GfK consumer confidence Index for July rose to 29.2, but still came in noticeably worse than analysts’ expectations of 28.0 down.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1330, 1.1279
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1384, 1.1452, 1.1415, 1.1488, 1.1523, 1.1559

The euro corrected yesterday toward the resistance level of 1.1384, where sellers showed a moderate reaction. However, the intraday bias is gradually shifting toward buyers – visible through sharper bullish candles. Today, the main focus is on a repeated test of 1.1384. An impulsive breakout will open the path toward 1.1432. If sellers react again at 1.1384, the price may decline to 1.1355 or lower.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1330
• Res: 1.1384
• Note: Sell trades from 1.1384 with confirmation. Buy trades require a strong bullish impulse with consolidation above 1.1384.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3164
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3190
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.20 %

The latest report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed a sharp deterioration in the UK distribution sector: in June, the retail sales Index fell to 54 from May’s 46 lower, marking a bleak start to summer and coming in far worse than the market expectation of 41 down. Retailers cite depressed consumer sentiment and rising operating costs as the main reasons for the prolonged crisis. The steep drop in consumer activity combined with accelerating business costs in the services sector puts the Bank of England in a deadlock, depriving the pound of monetary support amid the aggressive US dollar rally fueled by expectations of a Fed rate hike in autumn.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3184, 1.3155, 1.3093
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3207, 1.3251, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound tested liquidity above 1.3207 yesterday, after which the price fell to 1.3184, where buyers once again showed initiative. Today, the price is retesting 1.3207, and seller reaction is weak – indicating a strengthening bullish bias. A breakout above 1.3207 will open the path toward 1.3251. However, if sellers show initiative at 1.3207, intraday sell trades toward 1.3184 or lower may be considered.

Alternatif senaryo:

The British pound tested liquidity above 1.3207 yesterday, after which the price fell to 1.3184, where buyers once again showed initiative. Today, the price is retesting 1.3207, and seller reaction is weak – indicating a strengthening bullish bias. A breakout above 1.3207 will open the path toward 1.3251. However, if sellers show initiative at 1.3207, intraday sell trades toward 1.3184 or lower may be considered.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 161.76
• Öncekini Kapat: 161.80
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.02%

The Japanese yen showed high volatility, holding dangerously close to key multi‑decade lows. Despite the currency trading near its weakest levels since 1986, a powerful block of domestic news from Tokyo gave bulls strong fundamental arguments for a potential trend reversal. According to official data released early in the morning, core consumer inflation in the Tokyo region (a traditional leading indicator for the entire country) accelerated sharply to 1.6% y/y in June after hitting a four‑year low of 1.3% in May. Moreover, the BOJ’s most closely watched inflation gauge – excluding fresh food and energy – jumped from 1.6% to 1.9%, approaching the regulator’s 2% target. This fully reinforced investor expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue normalizing monetary policy at its next meeting on July 31.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 161.56, 161.34, 161.19, 160.53, 160.20, 160.05, 159.60, 159.45
• Direnç seviyeleri: 161.89, 162.00

The yen strengthened sharply yesterday after testing liquidity above 161.89. The price is now falling toward support at 161.56 for the third time, but this time buyer initiative is almost absent. This increases the likelihood of a breakout and further decline toward 161.34. Under such market conditions, today we look for sell trades after consolidation below 161.34. If buyers show initiative at 161.56, the scenario should shift toward considering long trades up to the EMA lines.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 161.56
• Res: 161.89
• Note: Buy trades from 161.56 with confirmation. A bearish breakout of 161.56 opens the path toward 161.34.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 3996
• Öncekini Kapat: 4026
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.75%

Gold prices recovered, rising back above the psychological $4,000 mark and retracing part of the previous session’s losses. Drivers of the local rebound included corrective dollar weakness and a decline in Treasury yields following the release of the May PCE Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The data came strictly in line with expectations, showing core inflation accelerating to 3.4% y/y – still well above the 2% target, but ruling out an uncontrolled price surge. Additional relief came from the prolonged drop in oil prices, which returned to pre‑Iran‑crisis levels. This prompted traders to reduce the probability of a September Fed rate hike from 68% to 63%, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 3972, 3884
• Direnç seviyeleri: 4037, 4067, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold is forming a flat accumulation range between 3972 and 4037 and will likely remain within this corridor until the end of the trading session. Therefore, traders should shift focus to intraday timeframes. For sell trades, the EMA lines may be considered with a target at the lower boundary of the range (3972). There are no optimal buy entries at the moment.

Alternatif senaryo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 3972
• Res: 4037
• Note: Intraday short trades from 4020 or EMA lines with confirmation. No optimal buy entries at the moment.