The possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran remains in the spotlight this week. The current “closed sea” situation continues to dictate conditions in the energy market, forcing investors to await earnings reports from major oil and gas companies, and inflation data from the eurozone and Australia, with particular caution, as rising fuel prices may require a stricter response from regulators. The U.S. technology sector is preparing for the most serious test of the current earnings season. The results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, to be released on April 29, along with Apple’s report expected on April 30, must demonstrate whether artificial intelligence revenues justify the enormous capital expenditures. Amid geopolitical instability, it is the “forward guidance” from tech giants that may serve as the anchor preventing stock indices from falling under the pressure of an energy shock. A busy week is unfolding on the monetary policy front as well. The US Federal Reserve meeting on April 28–29 carries particular significance: it will likely be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, with his term expiring in May 2026, amid Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for the role. At the same time, the ECB, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their rate decisions as they attempt to balance slowing growth with inflationary pressures driven by the war. China rounds out the packed agenda, with the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress convening from April 27 to 30. Attention will focus on legislative initiatives in national defense and state asset management, as well as measures to support the economy amid global logistical disruptions.
Pazartesi, April 27
Monday, April 27, is a quiet session, focusing entirely on the sentiment of the Eurozone’s largest economy as it navigates a complex geopolitical backdrop. The German GfK Consumer Confidence indicator is expected to remain deeply pessimistic, with a consensus forecast near 28.0. Consumer sentiment has been severely hammered by the “Iran conflict shock,” which has driven energy prices higher and reignited inflation fears. If the actual reading prints even lower than expected (e.g., nearing -30.0), it will signal that German households are moving into a “defensive” mode, prioritizing savings over consumption. This would be fundamentally bearish for the EUR. It’s a bank holiday in Australia.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
Salı, April 28
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report are the primary focus on Tuesday. While the BoJ is widely expected to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, the real volatility will stem from their updated forecasts. With the Iran-Israel conflict driving oil prices higher, the BoJ is anticipated to sharply revise its 2026 inflation forecasts upward while cutting growth projections. If Governor Ueda uses the post-meeting presser to signal a definitive June rate hike to 1.00%, the JPY could see a massive relief rally, potentially pushing USD/JPY down toward the 155.00 handle. However, if the BoJ remains overly cautious due to “geopolitical uncertainty,” the Yen could weaken further, testing the 160.00 intervention threshold. In the US, the ADP Employment Change and CB Consumer Confidence will provide a pulse check on the world’s largest economy. A weak consumer and a strong labor market would likely cause choppy trading for US indices, while the USD might benefit from safe-haven flows if the confidence data triggers broader growth concerns.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3) – JPY (HIGH)
- Japan BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3) – JPY (HIGH)
- US ADP Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Çarşamba, April 29
Wednesday is arguably the most significant day of the month, featuring a “Double Header” of central bank decisions from the Fed and the BoC, alongside critical inflation data from Australia and Germany. The US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision is the week’s apex. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the focus will be entirely on the Statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. With the “Iran war shock” pushing energy prices higher, any shift toward a more hawkish narrative or a delay in 2026 easing plans will supercharge the US dollar (DXY). Earlier in the day, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is also expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25%. However, unlike the Fed, the BoC faces a cooling domestic economy and softening core inflation (near 2.4%), creating a sharp policy divergence. If Governor Macklem signals that the BoC is prepared to “look through” the energy shock to support growth, the CAD will likely plummet against the USD. Simultaneously, watch the Australia CPI: a forecast jump toward 4.8% y/y due to the removal of energy subsidies and fuel spikes would cement expectations for an RBA rate hike, potentially making AUD/CAD the most explosive pair of the session. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks at 03:30 (GMT+3) – NZD (LOW)
- Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
- Eurozone Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
- Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
- Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
- US Fed Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
Perşembe, April 30
On Thursday, the ECB and BoE Interest Rate Decisions take center stage. The ECB and BoE Interest Rate Decisions take center stage. Both banks are expected to hold rates steady at 2.15% (MRO) and 3.75%, respectively, but the focus is on their “wartime” inflation revisions. With the ECB’s own staff projections pointing to a sharp HICP spike toward 3.1% in Q2 due to energy costs, any hawkish shift in President Lagarde’s rhetoric could temporarily lift the EUR/USD. Simultaneously, if the Bank of England shows deep divisions in its vote (forecast 5-4 split) while acknowledging fuel-driven inflation risks, the GBP could outperform, especially against the Yen, though the upside for the FTSE 100 remains capped by recessionary fears. In the afternoon, the US PCE Price Index (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.4-0.6%, keeping the annual core rate sticky around 3.0%. A print higher than this, especially if coupled with a robust US GDP (q/q) reading above 2.0%, would provide the “US Exceptionalism” trade with fresh legs. This combination would likely drive US Treasury Yields higher, boosting the USD across the board and creating a “double-whammy” for Gold (XAU), which would face pressure from a stronger dollar.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (HIGH)
- UK BoE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (HIGH)
- Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3) – EUR (HIGH)
- Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Report at 15:15 (GMT+3) – EUR (HIGH)
- Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
- US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Cuma, May 01
Friday, despite being a bank holiday in many regions, features high-impact data that will test the narrative of “US Exceptionalism” and the Bank of Japan’s inflation tolerance. In the Asian session, the Tokyo Core CPI will be crucial for the Yen’s recovery path. Forecasts suggest a steady print of 1.8%, but any move back toward the 2.0% threshold would put intense pressure on the BoJ to follow through with hawkish guidance following their meeting earlier in the week. A “hot” inflation print in Tokyo would likely trigger a liquidation of USD/JPY long positions, especially if liquidity is thin due to the May Day holidays. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is the day’s headline event. Following a strong March reading of 52.7, the consensus for April sits at 53.2, indicating an accelerating expansion in the industrial sector. If the PMI beats expectations and price pressures remain near four-year highs due to Middle East supply constraints, the US dollar (DXY) will likely surge as traders price out any hope for Fed easing.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
- Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
- Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
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