Tổng quan phân tích về Các cặp tiền tệ chính trên 2026.02.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 1.1851
• Đóng trước đó: 1.1783
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: -0.58%

The euro weakened toward the $1.18 mark amid reports of a potential early departure by Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB. According to the Financial Times, she is considering resignation before the 2027 French presidential elections. Should this scenario unfold, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz could play key roles in selecting a successor. Additional attention was drawn to reports regarding the potential early departure of Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, who is viewed as a supporter of dovish policy. Despite the political uncertainty, Eurozone inflation remains under control, and the market expects rates to hold at current levels until the end of the year.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 1.1766, 1.1754, 1.1726
• Mức kháng cự: 1.1805, 1.1850, 1.1894, 1.1955, 1.2050, 1.3000

The euro has consolidated below the 1.1805 support level. The intraday bias favors sellers, with the price aiming to test liquidity below 1.1766. Under these market conditions, intraday sell trades can be considered from the 1.1805 level or the EMA lines. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1766
• Res: 1.1805
• Note: Consider sells from the EMA lines or the 1.1805 level, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 1.3550
• Đóng trước đó: 1.3500
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: -0.37 %

The British pound held below $1.36 following the publication of slowing inflation and weak labor market data, which strengthened expectations of Bank of England policy easing. According to the Office for National Statistics, annual inflation in January dropped to 3.0%, a low since March 2025, while the core figure fell to 3.1%, the lowest level since 2021. Previously released statistics showed a slowdown in wage growth and a rise in unemployment to 5.2%, confirming signs of economic cooling. Against this backdrop, markets have increased bets on interest rate cuts: a 25 bp move by April is fully priced in, and the probability of easing as early as March exceeds 75%. By November, investors expect at least two cuts, which continues to pressure the British currency.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 1.3505, 1.3456, 1.3426
• Mức kháng cự: 1.3505, 1.3558, 1.3582, 1.3606, 1.3670, 1.3697

The pound dropped sharply following the inflation data release and, unlike the euro, tested the liquidity zone below 1.3483. The presence of MACD divergence and an SMT signal (divergence between instruments) increases the likelihood of a corrective bounce. However, the structure remains sensitive to seller reactions. The key intraday level is 1.3505: an impulsive breakout would open room for a move toward 1.3558. If supply strengthens again in this zone, the market may return to weekly lows and maintain a downward bias.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3483
• Res: 1.3505
• Note: It is appropriate to look for intraday sells from the 1.3505 resistance level, but with confirmation. A breakout of 1.3505 will lead to a price increase toward 1.3558.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 153.31
• Đóng trước đó: 154.79
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: +0.96 %

The Japanese yen weakened toward 155 per dollar. Domestic data from Japan was mixed: machinery and equipment orders rose sharply in December after a downturn, largely due to major one-off contracts in the energy sector. Investors are also assessing the economic agenda of the government led by Sanae Takaichi and budget expectations. Meanwhile, the market is increasingly pricing in the probability of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in April, anticipating that upcoming statistics may create conditions for further policy normalization.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 154.62, 153.67, 152.61, 152.17, 151.54
• Mức kháng cự: 155.64, 156.27

Following a five-day consolidation, the Japanese yen broke out of its range and consolidated above it impulsively, forming a new bullish structure. Generally, the longer the price spends in an accumulation phase, the stronger and more sustained the subsequent move may be. The intraday bias currently favors buyers. However, the price has approached the 155.30 resistance level, where a local seller reaction is possible. It is optimal to consider buys on pullbacks, either from dynamic support at the EMA lines or from the 154.62 level as the nearest horizontal support. If the impulse continues, the target is the 155.64 zone.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 154.62
• Res: 155.30
• Note: Looking for intraday buys from the 154.62 support level or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are no optimal points for sell deals.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 4865
• Đóng trước đó: 4974
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: +2.24 %

Gold traded above $4,990 per ounce following the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The document reflected a divergence of views within the regulator: some participants allow for rate cuts upon further easing of inflation, while others are prepared to hold or even tighten policy if price pressure persists. Markets continue to focus on incoming data, maintaining the probability of easing toward the end of the year. Such uncertainty supports demand for gold as a hedge against potential monetary policy errors, despite improved risk appetite on stock exchanges and progress in geopolitical negotiations.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 4960, 4907, 4842, 4745, 4605, 4400
• Mức kháng cự: 5044, 5086, 5145, 5230

On intraday time frames, gold has shifted to a bullish bias, and the price is currently showing steady growth toward the liquidity zone above 5044. Momentum remains on the side of buyers, increasing the likelihood of a test of this area in the near future. That said, counter-trend sells can be considered intraday from dynamic resistance at the EMA lines or from nearby levels if confirmation appears. The 5044 level deserves special attention: if sellers show initiative and a reversal reaction forms from this zone, a pullback is possible. However, without a clear signal of weakening bullish pressure, selling against the current impulse carries high risk.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4960
• Res: 5044
• Note: For intraday, consider buy deals from the EMA lines or from the support level of 4860. For sales, assessing the price reaction to the resistance level of 5044.