Tổng quan phân tích về Các cặp tiền tệ chính trên 2026.03.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 1.1767
• Đóng trước đó: 1.1687
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: -0.68%

The European currency fell to a 5-week low on Monday. The euro found itself in the crosshairs of catastrophic macroeconomic data and an energy shock. While the US dollar strengthened amid a global flight to safety due to the war in the Middle East, the European currency weakened following signs of a deep recession in the bloc’s largest economy. Retail sales in Germany collapsed by 0.9% in January – the deepest decline in 19 months and a clear signal of paralyzed consumer demand. Against this backdrop, the euro faced an additional shock: natural gas prices in the EU surged by 39%, hitting a one-year high. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered fears of energy shortages, putting Eurozone industry at risk of stagflation – a simultaneous downturn in production and a sharp rise in prices.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 1.1673, 1.1634, 1.1618
• Mức kháng cự: 1.1707, 1.1724, 1.1747, 1.1766, 1.1793, 1.1823, 1.1850

Amid the global flight of investors to safe-haven assets and the rapid strengthening of the dollar, the euro continues to lose ground. At this stage, how the market reacts to the liquidity zone below 1.1673 is of key importance. In the absence of buyer support and if the downward momentum persists, the next target for the decline will be 1.1634. However, if buyers seize the initiative in the liquidity zone below 1.1673 and form a base for a reversal, a corrective rise to 1.1707 becomes possible. MACD divergence also increases the probability of a correction.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1673
• Res: 1.1707
• Note: Intraday, consider buy trades if a false breakout of 1.1673 forms. If a false breakout does not occur, we expect a further price decline to 1.1634.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 1.3409
• Đóng trước đó: 1.3405
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: -0.03%

The British pound fell to approximately $1.33, reaching its lowest level since December 2025, as a recovering US dollar received support from safe-haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The market instantly revised interest rate expectations: while just a few days ago investors were betting on an imminent easing of Bank of England policy, the rise in oil and gas prices is now forcing a “Higher for Longer” scenario to combat a new wave of inflation. The UK and Europe are in a high-risk zone due to critically low natural gas reserves in storage facilities. The need for large-scale inventory replenishment amid skyrocketing energy prices creates a direct threat of sustained price pressure.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 1.3359, 1.3292
• Mức kháng cự: 1.3432, 1.3454, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound also continues to trade under pressure from a strengthening US dollar, but appears more stable than the euro. Intraday priority remains with the sellers, but the price is sitting in front of the 1.3359 support level, where it is important to evaluate price action. Given the SMT divergence (the euro hit a new low, while the pound did not), there is a high probability of a corrective rise from 1.3359, provided buyers show signs of initiative. A breakout of 1.3359 will open the path for a further decline to the liquidity zone below 1.3292.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3359
• Res: 1.3432
• Note: Intraday, looking for buy trades from the 1.3359 support level, but with confirmation. An impulse breakout of 1.3359 will lead to a sell-off down to 1.3292.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 155.98
• Đóng trước đó: 158.29
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: +0.84%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen traded at 157.4 per dollar, remaining under heavy pressure after a 1% drop during the previous session. Japan’s critical dependence on energy imports has made the national currency extremely vulnerable to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as the sharp rise in oil and gas prices effectively means a massive capital outflow from the country to pay energy bills. The situation is exacerbated by internal political divisions: while BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino confirms the path toward further rate hikes, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has publicly expressed concern about policy tightening, stripping the yen of a clear fundamental anchor. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has already moved to verbal interventions, stating that authorities are monitoring the exchange rate “with extreme attention” and view currency intervention as a real option to protect the yen in close cooperation with the US.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 156.80, 155.70, 155.34, 154.86, 154.00, 152.61
• Mức kháng cự: 157.66, 158.12

The Japanese currency reached the 157.66 resistance level, above which there is a large cluster of liquidity. From a technical standpoint, a correction to 156.80 or lower is brewing. To enter a sell on the correction, intraday trades from 157.66 can be considered, but with confirmation. For buys, evaluate the price reaction at the 156.80 support level, where buyers may once again seize the initiative.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 156.80
• Res: 157.66
• Note: Looking for intraday sells from the 157.66 resistance level, but with confirmation. For buys, evaluate the price reaction at the 156.80 support level.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Các chỉ báo kỹ thuật của cặp tiền tệ:

• Mở trước đó: 5326
• Đóng trước đó: 5322
• % thay đổi 24 giờ qua: -0.07%

On Tuesday, the price of gold rose to $5,350 per ounce, showing growth for the fifth consecutive session. The precious metal remains the main beneficiary of the “war premium” after President Trump promised to continue strikes against Iran until the threat is fully eliminated, suggesting the conflict could drag on for months. Tehran’s official announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threats to attack any vessels in this corridor have turned gold into a non-alternative asset for capital preservation amid global chaos and the actual start of a large-scale war in the region. However, a serious obstacle has emerged for gold in the form of hawkish Fed rate expectations. The sharp spike in oil prices due to the blockade triggered a sell-off in US Treasuries as investors fear a new round of inflation. As a result, the market has sharply revised monetary policy projections: expectations for the next rate cut have shifted from spring to September 2026.

Khuyến nghị giao dịch

• Mức hỗ trợ: 5260, 5214, 5186, 5151
• Mức kháng cự: 5379, 5416, 5600

Gold quotes unexpectedly corrected on Monday. Experts attribute this to the fact that the incredible rise in gold prior to the start of hostilities had already priced in geopolitical risk. However, if escalation intensifies, further growth with new highs is not ruled out. Technically, the price bounced off the 5379 resistance level and is now aiming for a liquidity test below 5260. With a high probability, the price will continue to trade in the 5260-5379 range until the end of the week. The intraday bias is with the sellers; therefore, sells can be sought down to the lower boundary. For buys, evaluate the price reaction at the 5260 level.

Kịch bản thay thế:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 5260
• Res: 5379
• Note: For buys, it is best to consider the 5260 support level, but with confirmation. Sells are appropriate intraday but with short targets.