主要货币对的分析概要 2025.04.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1366
• 前一收盘价: 1.1419
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.47 %

On Monday, the euro recovered from early losses and moved up after the dollar weakened. The euro initially declined on Monday amid some dovish comments from the ECB. ECB Governing Council spokesman Villeroy de Gallo said the ECB has room to cut interest rates, while his colleague, ECB Governing Council spokesman Rehn, said he sees downside risks in the ECB’s March inflation expectations. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the June 5 meeting to 100%. This week, market attention will be focused on Eurozone and US inflation data, as well as the expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1309, 1.1246, 1.1157, 1.1088, 1.0960
• 阻力价位: 1.1440, 1.1492, 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro is forming a flat accumulation with the boundaries of 1.1309–1.1440. Volumes indicate a decrease in interest, which increases the probability of an impulse after the liquidity accumulation in the flat is completed. However, until the support level of 1.1309 is broken, it is worth staying away from selling. Intraday buying from the EMA could be considered to test liquidity above 1.1440.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1309 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3304
• 前一收盘价: 1.3440
• 过去一天的变化%: +1.02 %

The British pound reached 1.3434 against the dollar, a 3-year high, as easing trade tensions between the US and China boosted investor sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. In the UK, EY Item Club expects a slowdown in economic growth due to Trump’s tariffs, lowering its 2025 GDP growth projections to 0.8% from 1% and cutting its 2026 prognosis to 0.9%. This slowdown is attributed to the impact of the global tariff war on consumer spending and business investment. This week’s UK data calendar does not contain any special data: only the Nationwide House Price Index and the Bank of England’s monetary and credit indicators are scheduled for release.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3348, 1.3289, 1.3246, 1.3121
• 阻力价位: 1.3434

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame is bullish. The British pound, unlike the euro, has updated its price maximum. This is called SMT divergence between instruments, and it is usually a precursor to a reversal or correction. The MACD divergence also indicates a high probability of a correction. For selling, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3434, but with confirmation. For buying, it is best to consider the EMA lines or the support level of 1.3348.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3202 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 143.70
• 前一收盘价: 141.99
• 过去一天的变化%: -1.20 %

The BOJ’s announcement that it will buy government bonds in May at the same pace as in April was a negative for the yen, as it eased speculation that the BOJ would reduce its bond purchases in a hawkish move. The yen rose on Monday thanks to covering short positions ahead of Thursday’s Bank of Japan meeting. Investors are awaiting the BOJ’s monetary policy meeting this week, where the Bank is expected to keep the rate at 0.5%.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 142.60, 141.52, 140.18, 139.59
• 阻力价位: 143.22, 144.09

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to an upward trend. The Japanese yen failed to reach the liquidity pool above 144.08 level. The price corrected to the support zone below 142.60, where buyers showed a weak reaction. The MACD indicator turned negative, but momentum is behind the buyers. Under these market conditions, intraday buying from 142.60 or 141.52 can be looked for. The profit target is 143.22, where selling can be considered if sellers take the initiative.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 140.16 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 3327
• 前一收盘价: 3344
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.51 %

The gold price fell to around $3,310 per ounce on Tuesday as easing fears of trade wars limited demand for safe-haven assets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that many top US trading partners have made “very good” tariff proposals, adding that China’s recent move to exempt some US goods from retaliatory tariffs signals a willingness to de-escalate tensions. There have also been reports that President Trump will take steps to soften the impact of his tariffs on automotive products. Attention will now turn to the crucial US economic reports coming out this week, including the first estimate of first quarter GDP, March PCE inflation data, and April Non-Farm Payrolls, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 3260, 3245, 3194
• 阻力价位: 3334, 3367, 3385, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold reached the 3334 resistance level yesterday, where sellers showed a moderate reaction. Currently, the price is right in the middle of a flat accumulation, making it difficult to find good entry points. Intraday buying from EMA lines can be considered with the aim of reaching the liquidity pool above 3367, as the price has broken the downtrend line. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

选择场景:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3260, the downtrend will likely resume.