主要货币对的分析概要 2025.07.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1769
• 前一收盘价: 1.1749
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.17 %

The ECB left interest rates unchanged in July, effectively marking the end of the current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year, which brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, and the deposit rate at 2.0%. Policymakers have taken a wait-and-see stance, assessing the impact of prolonged trade uncertainty and the potential consequences of proposed US tariffs on economic growth and inflation. Inflation reached the ECB’s 2% target in June, further confirming the need for a pause in policy adjustments. Speaking at the ECB press conference, President Lagarde said the central bank was “in a good position” but acknowledged that it was difficult to assess how tariffs would affect the price outlook.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1738, 1.1714, 1.1657, 1.1615
• 阻力价位: 1.1786, 1.1810, 1.1913

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Yesterday, the price reached the resistance level of 1.1786, at which point sellers reacted with initiative. The euro has now corrected to the intermediate level of 1.1738, but the reaction of buyers remains limited. Under these market conditions, buy trades can be considered from 1.1738 or the support level of 1.1715. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1615 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3576
• 前一收盘价: 1.3512
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.47 %

The British pound fell to $1.354 after weaker-than-expected UK PMI data heightened concerns about the state of the economy and increased bets on a Bank of England rate cut. The services and composite PMI readings missed forecasts, signaling a sharper slowdown in private sector growth, while the manufacturing sector showed a smaller-than-expected contraction. Despite a slight increase in commodity price inflation, analysts expect the Bank of England to prioritize growth over inflation, given the weak data and a weakening labor market. Traders are now awaiting retail sales data, which is expected to rise thanks to warm weather.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3496, 1.3467, 1.3402
• 阻力价位: 1.3534, 1.3586, 1.3645

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The price has corrected to the support level of 1.3496, but the reaction of buyers is limited, which increases the likelihood of a decline to 1.3467. From these levels, traders can look for buy deals with a target of 1.3534. There are currently no medium-term sales deals available.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3402 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 146.48
• 前一收盘价: 147.01
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.36 %

Core inflation in Tokyo in July was slightly below expectations but remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, fueling speculation about another rate hike later this year. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its monetary policy decision next week, with rates likely to remain unchanged amid concerns about the economic impact of US tariffs. However, the central bank is also likely to revise its inflation forecast in its quarterly review. Earlier this week, Uchida of the Bank of Japan expressed a cautious stance on further policy tightening, citing heightened uncertainty over US trade policy and its broader global implications.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 146.35, 145.85, 145.28, 144.18
• 阻力价位: 147.15, 147.93

From a technical perspective, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen has corrected to the resistance level of 147.15, where traders can look for sell deals. Sellers need to maintain this level, as a breakout will result in a price increase to the priority change level of 147.39. There are currently no optimal entry points for purchases.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 147.93 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 3390
• 前一收盘价: 3369
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.62 %

On Friday, gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, marking the third consecutive day of decline, as concerns about tariffs continued to ease, reducing the appeal of the precious metal. Investors continue to monitor the progress of trade negotiations. According to reports, the US and the EU are close to reaching an agreement, shortly after Washington announced the conclusion of a separate agreement with Japan. On the economic front, US jobless claims fell for the sixth consecutive week, marking the longest decline since 2022, which underscores the strength of the labor market. This has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its meeting next week, but markets are still pricing in a possible rate cut in September.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 3345, 3320, 3309
• 阻力价位: 3373, 3401, 3439, 3500

From the technical analysis perspective, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has consolidated below the 3373 support level, which implies a liquidity test below the 3345 priority change level. This is where buyers need to take the initiative, which will open up opportunities for buy trades. If buyers do not react at 3345, there will be a change in the medium-term trend.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 3345 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to resume.