主要货币对的分析概要 2025.08.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1601
• 前一收盘价: 1.1723
• 过去一天的变化%: +1.05 %

On Friday, speaking at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the door is open for a September rate cut, citing growing risks to the labor market, even despite persistent inflationary pressures. He noted that July employment data showed lower-than-expected hiring and warned that layoffs could increase rapidly if conditions deteriorate. However, he stressed that President Trump’s tariffs could spur sustained inflation, which requires caution. Powell stressed that the Fed must balance growth and price stability, saying that policy remains restrictive but could be adjusted if risks tilt further toward employment. After the speech, the probability of a September rate cut is around 91%. This led to a sharp weakness in the US dollar, allowing the European currency to jump more than 1% at the end of the day.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1687, 1.1671, 1.1625, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 阻力价位: 1.1737, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. On Friday, after testing the priority change level 1.1589, the price rose sharply amid dollar weakness following Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The price reached the resistance level of 1.1737, where the first fixation of previously opened purchases took place. Currently, it is important to assess the price action at the support levels of 1.1688 and 1.1671. If buyers react here, it will open up opportunities for intraday buy deals. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3408
• 前一收盘价: 1.3530
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.91 %

There will be no significant microdata from the UK this week. Therefore, the overall dynamics of the dollar will be the key factor influencing the exchange rate of the pound sterling. Today is a bank holiday in the UK.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3530, 1.3476, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 阻力价位: 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The British pound, like the euro, has strengthened sharply from the priority change level. After fixing profits at 1.3530, the price is now correcting. For buy deals in continuation of the growth, you can consider the EMA lines or the support level of 1.3476. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downwtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 148.30
• 前一收盘价: 146.93
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.93 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 147.4 per dollar on Monday, reversing the previous session’s gains, despite hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Speaking at the Fed’s conference in Jackson Hole on Saturday, Ueda said that wages in Japan are expected to continue to rise amid a tightening labor market, indicating that conditions are ripe for another interest rate hike. The Bank of Japan paused its rate hike cycle mainly due to concerns about the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-oriented economy. At its July meeting, the Central Bank kept rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations and presented a more optimistic economic outlook, maintaining expectations for another rate hike this year.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 146.99, 146.75, 146.35
• 阻力价位: 147.64, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply from the priority change level of 148.52 and reached the liquidity zone below 146.75 on Friday. To distribute the captured liquidity, the high needs to be updated. Therefore, the price may correct to 147.64 before resuming its decline. For intraday buy deals, consider the level of 146.99, but with confirmation. For sales, wait for the price reaction at 147.64.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 3339
• 前一收盘价: 3373
• 过去一天的变化%: +1.02 %

Gold rose to $3,375 per ounce amid signs of a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve and strong demand for safe-haven assets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Central Bank sees a shift in the balance of risks from a slowing labor market to the continuing threat of inflation after revising wage data and raising the unemployment rate, which likely justifies an adjustment in monetary policy that will lead to a 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming September decision. In addition, traders began to bet more on three rate cuts this year, which supported non-yielding precious metals.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 3358, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281
• 阻力价位: 3374, 3383, 3402, 3433

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. On Friday, the price rose steadily from 3327 and reached the resistance level of 3374, where fixation is observed. As a rule, before a reversal, the price first makes a fixation several times and then makes a new liquidity capture above the old high or low. Therefore, it is highly likely that gold will continue to rise. For buy deals, it is worth considering the support levels of 3358 or 3350, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.