主要货币对的分析概要 2025.08.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1721
• 前一收盘价: 1.1616
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.90 %

The euro retreated on Monday due to the strengthening of the dollar. Initially, the euro found some support after Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose more than expected to a 16-month high. In addition, the euro was supported by comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said that tariffs would have only a minor impact on European GDP. However, on the geopolitical front, diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine remain unsuccessful. On Sunday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that no meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine is planned and that “there must first be an agenda” before a meeting can take place. The outcome could have macroeconomic implications for tariffs and oil prices and, of course, could have significant implications for European security.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1625, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 阻力价位: 1.1660, 1.1687, 1.1737, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro corrected quite deeply yesterday, breaking through the nearest support levels. Currently, buyers have reacted from 1.1625, and this level can be considered the last line of defense for buyers before a further decline. Intraday, you can look for buys up to 1.1660. However, if the price consolidates below 1.1625, there is a high probability of a sell-off to 1.1590.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3512
• 前一收盘价: 1.3453
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.44 %

The latest economic survey showed that British businesses experienced their strongest month of the year, thanks to an upturn in the services sector. This data followed inflation data, which only briefly boosted the pound, as analysts noted that the increase mainly reflected higher airfares rather than broad price pressures. The inflation data is unlikely to significantly change the Bank of England’s policy stance. Money markets now see the probability of a rate cut before the end of 2025 as less than 50%, with the probability of a quarter-point cut this year at just 36% and the next cut likely to be scheduled for spring 2026.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 阻力价位: 1.3445, 1.3476, 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The British pound, like the euro, corrected sharply yesterday amid the strengthening of the US dollar. The price reached the support level of 1.3445, where buyers reacted. It is very important for buyers not to let the price fall below this level. Otherwise, a sell-off to the priority change level is almost guaranteed.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 146.86
• 前一收盘价: 147.76
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.61 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 147 per dollar on Tuesday, recovering losses from the previous session, as the dollar came under pressure after US President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. The move heightened concerns about the Fed’s independence and its ability to conduct monetary policy without political influence. On the domestic front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Saturday that wages in Japan are expected to continue to rise amid a tightening labor market, indicating confidence that conditions are in place for another interest rate hike. At its July meeting, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations and gave a more optimistic economic outlook.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 147.00, 146.75, 146.35
• 阻力价位: 147.94, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen corrected to 147.94 yesterday, where sellers took the initiative, after which the price fell to 147.00, and buyers entered the game here. The price is currently trading in a wide range of 147.00–147.94. It is important for sellers not to let the price consolidate above 147.94; otherwise, a rise to 148.58 will be very likely. Intraday, you can look for sell deals from 147.94, but with a short stop loss.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 3373
• 前一收盘价: 3365
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.24 %

On Tuesday, gold prices rose above $3,370 per ounce, reaching their highest level in two weeks amid increased political uncertainty after President Donald Trump fired Federal Reserve representative Lisa Cook. On Monday, Trump announced on social media that he was removing Cook from her position, citing allegations of mortgage fraud by his administration. This is a move that heightened concerns about the independence of the US Central Bank. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last Friday that a rate cut was possible in September, highlighting growing risks in the labor market but noting that inflation remains a threat and that no decision has been made yet. Markets currently estimate the probability of a 25 bps rate cut next month at 83%. Investors are awaiting Friday’s release of the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, for further clues on the trajectory of US monetary policy.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 3374, 3358, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281
• 阻力价位: 3383, 3402, 3433

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Today, traders should focus on the support level of 3374. From this level, you can look for buys with a target of 3383 and above. If the price consolidates below 3374, there is a high probability of a correction to 3362, where you can also consider buying, but with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.