主要货币对的分析概要 2026.05.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1735
• 前一收盘价: 1.1709
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.22%

The US Producer Price Index rose 1.4% in April, month‑over‑month and 6% y/y – significantly above market expectations. The core PPI excluding food and energy also accelerated more than was projected, reaching 5.2% year‑over‑year, the highest level in more than three years. Against this backdrop, the market has almost completely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut at the June meeting of the Federal Reserve. The EUR/USD pair declined yesterday as pressure on the euro increased due to weak macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. Industrial production in the region in March came in slightly worse than expected, and unemployment in France rose to a five‑year high. Additional pressure came from comments by ECB representative Olli Rehn, who warned of signs of stagflation in the Eurozone amid rising energy prices and weak economic growth. Despite this, markets still price in a high probability of an ECB rate hike in June.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1695, 1.1559, 1.1605
• 阻力价位: 1.1724, 1.1748, 1.1768, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro consolidated below 1.1724 and is now trading in a demand zone. The intraday bias remains with sellers, so it is more reasonable to consider short positions from EMA lines or from the resistance level of 1.1724, but with confirmation. Long positions become appropriate if the price impulsively consolidates above 1.1724 again.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1695
• Res: 1.1724
• Note: Long positions may be considered after an impulsive consolidation above 1.1724. While the price remains below this level, the intraday focus is on selling toward 1.1695.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3528
• 前一收盘价: 1.3522
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.04%

The British pound fell to 1.35 dollars, reaching its lowest level since late April amid growing political uncertainty in the United Kingdom. Pressure on the currency increased after reports that Health Secretary Wes Streeting is considering entering the Labour Party leadership race amid rising dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Despite calls for resignation from some ministers and more than 80 Labour MPs following the party’s weak performance in local elections, Starmer confirmed his intention to remain prime minister. Additional pressure on investor sentiment comes from prolonged US-Iran negotiations and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which support high oil prices and intensify inflation risks.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3514, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 阻力价位: 1.3553, 1.3596, 1.3637, 1.3670

The British pound tested liquidity below 1.3514, where buyers showed initiative, after which the price consolidated above the level again. Given the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a correction toward 1.3553. For opening long positions, it is very important to see buyers defend 1.3514 on a retest. If the price consolidates below 1.3514 again, the decline may extend to 1.3463.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3514
• Res: 1.3553
• Note: For long positions, evaluate price reaction at 1.3514. Short positions become appropriate after a repeated consolidation below 1.3514.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 157.59
• 前一收盘价: 157.85
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.16%

On Thursday, the Japanese yen weakened to around 158 per dollar, continuing its decline for the fourth session in a row amid a strengthening US currency following strong US inflation data. Accelerating consumer and producer prices increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for an extended period or may even consider further tightening, which boosted the attractiveness of the dollar and pressured the yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s published Summary of Opinions showed that the central bank leadership is discussing the possibility of another rate hike at the next meeting, especially amid rising oil prices and intensifying inflationary pressure. Additionally, the OECD expects the BOJ’s key rate to reach 2% by the end of 2027.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 157.01, 156.06, 155.49, 154.86
• 阻力价位: 157.75, 158.00, 158.55

The situation in the pair is difficult for trading. Japanese authorities are trying to prevent the price from consolidating above the 157.75-158.00 zone, but after each attempt, buyers absorb selling near the EMA lines. As a result, the yen cannot strengthen or break the intraday upward structure. An impulsive breakout of 158.00 will open the way toward 158.55. However, authorities may intervene at any moment. In case of a sharp rejection from 158.00, the price may quickly correct to 156.98 or even 156.46.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutra
• Sup: 157.00
• Res: 158.00
• Note: Short positions may be considered from 158.00 if sellers react. Long positions are possible after an impulsive consolidation above 158.00 with an initial target of 158.55.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 4716
• 前一收盘价: 4688
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.59%

On Wednesday, gold prices fell for the second session in a row, dropping to around 4680 dollars per ounce as accelerating US inflation strengthened expectations of prolonged high interest rates. Additional pressure came from producer‑price data: in April, the PPI rose more than was projected, showing the strongest increase since early 2022 amid rising energy and trade costs linked to the Iran conflict. Another negative factor was India’s decision to raise import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%, which may weaken physical demand. Markets also remain focused on Donald Trump’s visit to China, where investors hope to see signs of progress in trade negotiations.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 4648, 4611, 4554, 4518
• 阻力价位: 4707, 4748, 4772, 4798

Gold is forming a flat accumulation, with the upper boundary at the resistance level of 4707. Sellers are actively defending the level, preventing the price from even attempting to close above it. This indicates strong intraday bearish pressure, which may lead to a decline toward 4648 or lower to capture new liquidity. Long positions are appropriate only after the price consolidates above 4707.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4648
• Res: 4707
• Note: Long positions may be considered only after consolidation above 4707. Short positions are relevant from 4707 if sellers react.