主要货币对的分析概要 2026.06.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1370
• 前一收盘价: 1.1385
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.13%

On Friday, EUR/USD received support from broad US dollar weakness and falling global oil prices, which is favorable for the energy‑dependent eurozone economy. Meanwhile, the release of the ECB’s inflation expectations survey generated a mixed reaction: although short‑term CPI expectations declined noticeably – to 3.5% from April’s 4.0% – three‑year expectations remained at 2.9%, slightly above market projections. Against this backdrop, market participants almost completely rule out any active steps from the regulator in the near term, pricing the probability of a rate hike at the July ECB meeting at just 7%. Current dynamics indicate that the market is adapting to slowing short‑term inflation expectations while remaining cautious about long‑term price stability.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1384, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279
• 阻力价位: 1.1432, 1.1478, 1.1523, 1.1559

On Friday, the euro rose to the resistance level of 1.1432, where sellers showed sharp initiative, pushing the price down to 1.1383. Buyers are now attempting to prevent the price from falling below this level. Given the price consolidation above the EMA, intraday long positions from 1.1383 may be considered. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1383 will likely trigger a decline toward 1.1359.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1383
• Res: 1.1432
• Note: Long trades from 1.1383 with confirmation. For shorts, wait for consolidation below 1.1383.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3193
• 前一收盘价: 1.3196
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.02 %

Bank analysts highlight the strong resilience of the British pound, supported by confidence in the UK fiscal system, balanced political decision‑making, and investment inflows, including M&A activity. Although investors have lowered expectations for further Bank of England rate hikes, analysts do not see this as a threat to the currency. They believe that inflation normalization and slowing wage growth simply protect the regulator from policy errors, while the continued attractiveness of short‑term gilt yields and the pound’s status as a carry‑trade instrument provide significant support.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3184, 1.3155, 1.3093
• 阻力价位: 1.3225, 1.3251, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound consolidated above 1.3184, potentially opening the path toward 1.3251. Sellers are attempting to form a resistance zone near 1.3225, but this level is weak relative to buyer strength. Under such market conditions, intraday long trades may be considered from the EMA lines or from the support level at 1.3184. Short positions become relevant if sellers show initiative at 1.3251.

选择场景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3184
• Res: 1.3225
• Note: Long trades from 1.3184 or EMA lines. For buys, watch the price reaction at 1.3251.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 161.77
• 前一收盘价: 161.75
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.01%

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session with a slight decline, but the yen gained momentum thanks to stronger‑than‑expected Tokyo inflation data, which reinforced expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy. Additional support came from falling global energy prices – critical for Japan’s import‑dependent economy – and a stock‑market sell‑off that boosted demand for safe‑haven assets. Nevertheless, the yen continues to trade near multi‑year lows, as investors fear the BOJ will keep delaying policy normalization despite signs of gradual tightening ahead. Tensions around the yen intensify as the pair approaches the 160 level, increasing the likelihood of direct FX intervention by Tokyo.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 161.56, 161.34, 161.19, 160.53, 160.20, 160.05, 159.60, 159.45
• 阻力价位: 161.89, 162.00

The yen is forming a flat accumulation range between 161.56 and 161.89. Fundamentally, the yen currently lacks support and continues to weaken against the dollar due to the interest‑rate differential. Technically, the price is aiming to update a 40‑year high above 162. Since the price is trading near resistance at 161.89, long trades are not optimal. For shorts, evaluate price reaction in the 161.89–162.00 zone.

选择场景:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 161.56
• Res: 161.89
• Note: Short trades from 161.89–162.00 with seller confirmation. No optimal long entries at the moment.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 4029
• 前一收盘价: 4088
• 过去一天的变化%: +1.46%

Gold prices stabilized near $4,040 per ounce on Friday, posting a two‑day rebound after US PCE inflation data matched expectations and cooled market fears about aggressive Fed tightening. Despite this local recovery, gold ended last week lower, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline under pressure from a strengthening dollar. The dollar’s momentum is supported by firm statements from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about combating inflation and maintaining independent monetary policy despite political pressure. Overall PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% in May, and the Fed’s upward revision of its expectations is prompting investors to price in a scenario with three rate hikes this year. The market currently assigns a roughly 62% probability to the start of tightening in September, which continues to limit gold’s upside potential.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 4044, 3972, 3884
• 阻力价位: 4087, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold is trading within the 4044-4087 range. Buyers are actively defending the lower boundary, as its breakout could trigger a new wave of sell‑offs. Meanwhile, sellers have shown initiative twice from 4087. Under such market conditions, trading strategies should focus on the range boundaries. For long trades, consider 4044 with confirmation. For shorts, evaluate price reaction at 4087.

选择场景:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4044
• Res: 4087
• Note: Intraday long trades from 4044 with confirmation. For shorts, watch the reaction at 4087.