The main event of the week will be the US non-farm payrolls report. The US economy is expected to have added 139,000 jobs in March, slowing from the 151,000 jobs added in February. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet and will likely keep the rate at 4.10%. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will release inflation data for March, which will be closely watched amid speculation that the European Central Bank is preparing to cut rates in June. OPEC countries will meet on Thursday to discuss further plans for oil production levels. Continued production cuts may boost oil prices. Also, Swiss inflation data should be on the trader’s watch list for this week.
星期一, Monday, March 31
Monday is expected to be a relatively calm day. In the Asian session, traders are waiting for the business activity data from China, which may affect the movement of Asian indices, especially HK50 and AU200. At the European session, pay attention to the German inflation data. Consumer prices are expected to show 2.3% in annualized terms, the same as in the previous month.
当前主要事件:
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).
星期二, Tuesday, April 1
The main event on Tuesday will be the RBA monetary policy meeting. The RBA is expected to keep the rate at 4.1% but may hint at a cut in the second half of 2025, which could slightly impact AUD. Traders will also assess business data on key economies’ manufacturing sectors. Most of the economies are still in contractionary territory, but the dynamics of recent months indicate progress. As a rule, the growth of this indicator is accompanied by the support of the national currency. In the Eurozone, the inflation report will be published, where further reduction of inflationary pressure is expected, increasing the probability of an ECB rate cut in June. This may put pressure on the EUR.
当前主要事件:
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
星期三, Wednesday, April 2
No major news is expected on Wednesday. In the US session, traders may pay attention to the private employment report from ADP and the data on crude oil inventories. In recent weeks, crude oil inventories in Cushing have decreased, supporting oil prices.
当前主要事件:
- – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
星期四, Thursday, April 3
Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. The most important report will be the Swiss inflation data. At the last meeting, the SNB cut the rate by 0.25%, confidently expecting a further decline in consumer prices. Traders should also pay attention to the US and Canada trade balance data. Also, on Thursday, OPEC+ countries will meet to discuss production quotas. If the cartel continues reducing production, it could put upward pressure on oil prices.
当前主要事件:
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Services (m/m) PMI at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services (m/m) PMI at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – OPEC Meeting (m/m) at 12:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
星期五, Friday, April 4
Friday’s US jobs report will be in the spotlight. According to the March forecast, the economy added 139к new jobs, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings growth is expected to hold at 4.1% y/y. The dynamics of recent weeks indicate that the US labor market is slowly cooling down. March data could be a cold shower as it could dramatically increase the likelihood of a US Fed rate cut before the summer. Weak data will put downward pressure on the stock market. Along with the Nonfarm Payrolls report, Canadian labor market data will also be released. Economists expect employment to increase in March by 9.9k, better than 1.1k in February. The resilience of the labor market will positively impact the CAD. It’s a bank holiday in China.
当前主要事件:
- – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:25 (GMT+3).
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