WTI oil prices fell by more than 3%. The RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.6%

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.15%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.48% higher. The US stocks closed up on Monday, driven by gains in technology and AI company stocks like Nvidia (+2.1%), AMD (+1.2%), and Micron Technology (+4.2%). Shares of the video game company Electronic Arts (EA) jumped 4.5% following the announcement of a $55 billion stock buyback deal by a Saudi Arabian company. Market participants are closely monitoring the risk of a US government shutdown, which could delay the release of key economic data, including Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, increasing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decisions.

The Canadian dollar recovered to the 1.39 level against the US dollar as a weaker USD following the August PCE data release and stronger domestic economic activity reduced both external and internal pressure on the Canadian currency. Statistics Canada revised July GDP up to 0.2% month-over-month and reported that economic activity was virtually flat in August, easing concerns about a Canadian economic recession and shifting market focus back to growth data. The Bank of Canada’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.5% on September 17 was widely anticipated. Therefore, it did not trigger unexpected capital outflows.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.13%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.16% higher.

WTI oil prices fell by more than 3% to $63.4 a barrel after Iraq’s Kurdish region resumed oil exports on Saturday following a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, and as OPEC+ plans another output increase this week, compounding oversupply fears. The agreement between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies operating in the region will initially allow 180,000-190,000 barrels per day to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. This follows pressure from the US to get Kurdish oil back on international markets, with volumes eventually expected to rise to approximately 230,000 barrels per day. The return of Kurdish oil coincides with efforts by OPEC+ to increase output to further win market share. The group is reportedly likely to approve an increase in production of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting this week.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) held firm around $3.20/MMBtu, a ten-week high, driven by lower production. Output in the US 48 states declined to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day in September from a record 108.3 billion cubic feet per day in August. Earlier supply surges led to a significant increase in inventories, which are 6% above the five-year average and 1% higher than last year.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.69%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 0.85%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, in line with market expectations. The Board noted that headline and trimmed mean inflation remained in the 2-3% range in the second quarter of 2025, though partial and volatile data suggest third-quarter inflation may be higher than anticipated. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains around domestic economic activity and inflation amid elevated global risks. The status of US tariffs and the retaliatory actions by other countries is becoming clearer, reducing the probability of extreme outcomes, but the expected evolution of trade is still anticipated to weigh on global growth.

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in September 2025, surpassing both the August reading of 50.5 and the market consensus expectations of 50.3. This was the highest reading since March. Production grew at the fastest pace in three months, and new export orders rose for the first time in six months.