The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.05.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1277
• Prev. Close: 1.1363
• % chg. over the last day: +0.75 %

After US President Trump reignited trade tensions by saying that negotiations with the EU are “going nowhere” and proposing to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1, the EUR declined to $1.13, retreating from a more than two-week high of $1.137. The proposed tariffs would affect about $606 billion of EU exports to the US in 2024. The US remains the EU’s largest trading partner, accounting for 21% of its exports. On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced an extension of the deadline for imposing 50% tariffs on the European Union, moving it from June 1 to July 9. This led to a sharp fall in the US dollar, allowing the euro to rise above 1.14.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1379, 1.1315, 1.1269, 1.1220, 1.1170, 1.1135
• Resistance levels: 1.1413, 1.1456

After US President Trump reignited trade tensions by saying that negotiations with the EU are “going nowhere” and proposing to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1, the EUR declined to $1.13, retreating from a more than two-week high of $1.137. The proposed tariffs would affect about $606 billion of EU exports to the US in 2024. The US remains the EU’s largest trading partner, accounting for 21% of its exports. On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced an extension of the deadline for imposing 50% tariffs on the European Union, moving it from June 1 to July 9. This led to a sharp fall in the US dollar, allowing the euro to rise above 1.14.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1256 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3416
• Prev. Close: 1.3537
• % chg. over the last day: +0.90 %

On Friday, data came in that showed an unexpectedly positive performance of the UK economy: retail sales rose by 1.2% in April, while the GfK Consumer Confidence Index showed an improvement in sentiment. It had been widely expected that economic activity would show a downturn in April, partly due to US President Donald Trump’s global trade war. As a result, the UK economy is showing signs of positive momentum, but economists believe the country is not yet out of the rough patch.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3542, 1.3474, 1.3434, 1.3382, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
• Resistance levels: 1.3713

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly is bullish. The British pound continues to grow steadily, mainly due to the decline in the US Dollar Index. Today is a bank holiday in the US and UK, so volatility on the currency pair will be reduced. For buying, we can consider the support level of 1.3542 or EMA lines. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.3390 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 143.98
• Prev. Close: 142.56
• % chg. over the last day: -0.99 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen settled at 142.5 per dollar, maintaining gains after a 2% jump last week, helped by a weaker US dollar as President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies once again undermined investor confidence in US assets. Domestically, investors continue to assess the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook, expecting it to raise interest rates further in response to ongoing inflation. Data released last week showed that Japan’s core inflation rate unexpectedly accelerated to 3.5%, the highest level in two years, bolstering the case for further policy tightening.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 142.19, 141.52
• Resistance levels: 143.03, 144.10, 144.80, 145.46, 146.36, 148.28, 150.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The yen strengthened to the support level of 142.19, where buyers showed a reaction. Currently, the price is again aiming for the supply zone above the resistance level of 143.03. Here, we can consider selling, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 145.51 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3296
• Prev. Close: 3358
• % chg. over the last day: +1.88 %

Gold fell below $3350 an ounce on Monday amid weakening demand for the safe-haven currency after President Donald Trump agreed to delay a planned 50 percent tariff on European goods. On Sunday, Trump set a July 9 deadline to buy time for talks with the bloc, backtracking from his earlier threat to impose the tariff on June 1. Trade concerns remain, however, as Trump also warned Apple Inc. on Friday that it would be hit with 25 percent tariffs if it doesn’t manufacture its iPhones in the US. The bullion price rose nearly 5% last week.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3320, 3285, 3250, 3204, 3151, 3103, 3049
• Resistance levels: 3363, 3414

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price has reached the resistance level of 3363, where partial fixation of previously opened buy deals is observed. The MACD divergence indicates correction, but space for growth remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level 3321 or EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3204, the downtrend will likely resume.