The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.05.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1331
• Prev. Close: 1.1292
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34 %

The Dollar Index rose above 100 on Thursday, extending its gains for the third consecutive session after a US federal court ruled that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs. The US Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs were “illegal for all”. This provided significant support for the US dollar and hurt risk assets. Traders also digested the latest FOMC meeting minutes and awaited new catalysts amid ongoing trade tensions and developments in the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting showed that policymakers are taking a wait-and-see approach as they try to assess the economic impact of the government’s latest actions and tariff measures. Officials acknowledged that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.1169, 1.1135
• Resistance levels: 1.1269, 1.1296, 1.1334, 1.1374

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to downward. The euro fell on the rise of the US dollar. Once again, geopolitics is affecting risky assets. Currently, the price has reached the support zone of 1.1200-1.1220, but the reaction of buyers is weak. Most likely, against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty and ahead of summer, the price will form a broad flat accumulation. For sell deals, you can consider the EMA lines or resistance levels of 1.1269 and 1.1296.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1334 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3503
• Prev. Close: 1.3470
• % chg. over the last day: -0.25 %

The British pound fell below $1.347 amid a recovery in the US dollar, although it remains close to a three-year high. The pound was pressured by the dollar’s recovery, driven by rising consumer confidence in the US and the US court’s cancellation of Trump’s tariff measures. Despite the decline, sentiment towards the UK economy has improved. The IMF has raised its expectations for UK economic growth in 2025 to 1.2% from 1.1%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3390, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
• Resistance levels: 1.3435, 1.3454, 1.3522, 1.3585

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly is bullish. However, the situation is developing in the direction of a trend shift. The price has now settled below 1.3454, and there are all the prerequisites for a further decline to the priority change level of 1.3390. Sell deals can be considered from 1.3435-1.3454, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.3390 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 144.26
• Prev. Close: 144.85
• % chg. over the last day: +0.41 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen fell to 146 per dollar, reaching a two-week low, as easing tariff risks weakened demand for safe assets. This came after a US federal court ruled that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs. On the domestic front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern about rising ultra-long-term bond yields, stressing the need to monitor potential spillover effects on shorter-maturity debt markets.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 145.45, 144.75, 143.84, 143.03
• Resistance levels: 146.27, 146.85, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY has changed to upward. The Japanese yen has fallen sharply amid the rise in the Dollar Index. The price has now deviated significantly from the EMA average lines. For buy deals, it is best to consider the support levels of 145.45 or 144.75, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 143.03 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3302
• Prev. Close: 3286
• % chg. over the last day: -0.48 %

The US dollar rose sharply after a US federal court ruled that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs, ordering the measures to be cancelled and permanently blocked. Although the Trump administration is expected to appeal, the ruling is a major setback for the president’s trade agenda. On Thursday, gold prices fell below $3,260 an ounce, marking the fourth consecutive day of declines, as reduced tariff risks undermined demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting showed policymakers taking a wait-and-see stance as they assess the economic impact of recent policy moves, including the now-blocked reciprocal tariffs.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3248, 3233, 3206, 3151
• Resistance levels: 3278, 3288, 3323

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but close to a reversal. Gold has reached a priority reversal level. Buyers’ reaction is weak, which increases the likelihood of a further decline. Sell deals can be considered intraday from the resistance level of 3278 or 3288. An impulse consolidation of the price above 3288 will open up room for growth to 3323.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3248, the downtrend will likely resume.