The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.06.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1528
• Prev. Close: 1.1561
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

Investors reacted to the growing divergence between the policies of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. The changes are taking place against a backdrop of rising oil prices caused by fears of supply disruptions due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as ongoing disputes over trade tariffs. In the Eurozone, markets now estimate the ECB’s deposit rate at 1.79% by the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut has fallen to 50% from 60%. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investors will focus on the updated economic expectations and dot plot, with markets still expecting a possible rate cut as early as September.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1505, 1.1445, 1.1373, 1.1356, 1.1312, 1.1296, 1.1269
• Resistance levels: 1.1572, 1.1616

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. On Monday, the price reached the resistance level of 1.1616, after which sellers reacted sharply. Currently, the price is trading below the resistance level of 1.1572 again, and it is important to assess the price action here. If sellers react, this will most likely trigger a sell-off to 1.1505. A breakout and consolidation of 1.1572 will reopen the path to 1.1616.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1373 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3553
• Prev. Close: 1.3578
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18 %

It will be a busy week for the UK. The May Consumer Price Index is due to be released on Wednesday. In April, utility prices jumped, which was reflected in a 1.2% month-on-month increase in consumer prices and did not repeat itself. However, any increase exceeding 0.3% in May will lead to an increase in the annual growth rate (3.5% in April). The Bank of England will hold a meeting the following day. There is virtually no chance of a policy change. The base rate will remain at 4.25%. In the swap market, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in August is about 63%, with the next rate cut fully expected only in November. Retail sales data for May is due out at the end of the week. It is likely to slow down compared to the impressive 1.2-1.3% growth in April.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3535, 1.3465, 1.3435, 1.3390, 1.3333, 1.3291, 1.3121
• Resistance levels: 1.3603, 1.3632

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish, but yesterday sellers reacted sharply to the supply zone above the 1.3603 resistance level. Currently, the price is heading towards testing liquidity below 1.3535. This level is very important for buyers, as its breakdown could lead to a sharp sell-off to the priority change level.

Alternative scenario:

If the price breaks through the support level of 1.3554 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 144.35
• Prev. Close: 144.74
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

The Japanese yen traded close to 145 per dollar on Tuesday after falling for two consecutive sessions, as the Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations. The Central Bank also maintained its existing plan to reduce Japanese government bond issuance until March 2026, but signaled its readiness to adjust the program if necessary. Policymakers remain cautious as they assess the inflationary impact of rising oil prices and await greater clarity on US trade policy. The yen also came under additional pressure after reports that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement on tariffs during the G7 summit in Canada.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 144.57, 143.88, 143.47, 142.76, 142.19
• Resistance levels: 145.45, 146.27, 146.85, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen has consolidated above the resistance level of 144.57. Currently, the price is trying to test liquidity above 145.46. Buy trades can be sought from the support level of 144.57 or from the EMA lines. Selling can only be considered in the event of a sharp breakdown of 144.57 with the price subsequently consolidating below.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 142.77 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3440
• Prev. Close: 3384
• % chg. over the last day: -1.65 %

On Monday, gold fell just below $3,400 per ounce after testing record highs of $3,465 earlier in the session, as easing concerns over military action between Israel and Iran limited demand for safe-haven assets. Reports indicated that Tehran was ready to resume nuclear talks with the US, signaling a willingness to halt the exchange of missiles four days after the start of airstrikes. This boosted risk sentiment, as the conflict has so far avoided attacks on critical infrastructure in global energy markets.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3377, 3338, 3303, 3272, 3248
• Resistance levels: 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold corrected on Monday to the support level of 3377. The price broke through the support level of 3408, indicating a strong bearish bias within the day. A consolidation below 3377 will open the way for a sell-off to 3338, so it is very important for buyers not to let the price fall below this level. A consolidation above 3405 will restore the bullish bias: in this scenario, you can look for buy trades with a target of 3444.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3338, the downtrend will likely resume.