The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.06.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1575
• Prev. Close: 1.1609
• % chg. over the last day: -0.29 %

The euro surpassed $1.16, reaching a new high for 2021, as it benefited from the general weakening of the dollar. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that there is no need to rush to lower interest rates, according to prepared remarks for his speech to Congress. This rhetoric was consistent with the chairman’s previous statements, as many FOMC members had said it would be wiser to wait for a better understanding of the tariffs that the US government would adopt and their impact on the economy before changing key interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1581, 1.1518, 1.1471, 1.1445, 1.1373, 1.1356
• Resistance levels: 1.1632, 1.1694

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Yesterday, the euro reached the resistance level of 1.1632, where profit-taking is observed. Given the MACD divergence, the price may correct to the support level of 1.1581. This level is optimal when looking for buy trades in continuation of the upward trend. Intraday, you can look for sell deals from 1.1632, but with short targets, as these will be countertrend trades.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1446 and consolidates below it, the downward trend is likely to resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3509
• Prev. Close: 1.3615
• % chg. over the last day: -0.78 %

The British pound rose above $1.361, reaching its highest level since January 2022, amid a weakening US dollar, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions. In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden confirmed that rates are likely to fall, citing signs of a weakening labor market. Bailey pointed to slowing wage growth and rising economic inactivity, although he emphasized concerns about the reliability of labor market data.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
• Resistance levels: 1.3633, 1.3748

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has shifted upward. The price has consolidated above the priority change level. Buy trades are best considered from the EMA lines or the support level of 1.3591. There are currently no optimal entry points for sell trades.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3470 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 146.10
• Prev. Close: 144.93
• % chg. over the last day: -0.80 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen held steady at 144.8 per dollar, close to its weekly high, as markets digested the latest summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan. Policymakers maintained a cautious stance on future policy adjustments, citing heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. The central bank confirmed that any rate hike would depend on whether its forecasts for economic growth and inflation were realized, with some officials emphasizing the importance of maintaining an accommodative stance amid ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 144.73, 144.36
• Resistance levels: 146.62, 148.28

From a technical perspective, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish, but it is close to a potential reversal. Over the past two trading days, the price has already tested the priority change level of 144.73 twice. Here, you can look for buy trades but with a short-stop loss, as there is a high probability of a liquidity test below 144.36. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling deals.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 144.73 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3368
• Prev. Close: 3323
• % chg. over the last day: -1.35 %

On Wednesday, gold prices rose to $3,330 per ounce, recovering slightly from a two-week low as markets assessed the stability of the Iran-Israel truce. A preliminary assessment by US intelligence showed that recent US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites had only temporarily delayed Tehran’s nuclear program, heightening concerns about renewed regional tensions. On monetary policy, Fed Chair Powell said interest rates are likely to remain unchanged until the impact of new tariffs becomes clearer. Still, he did not rule out a possible rate cut in July during his testimony before Congress.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3301, 3293, 3272, 3248
• Resistance levels: 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500

From the technical analysis perspective, the trend on the XAU/USD has shifted downward. The price has consolidated below the priority change level. Currently, profits are being fixed from the support level of 3301. For sell deals, you can use the EMA lines or the resistance level of 3357. However, the price is likely to fluctuate within this price range until the end of the week.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 3393, the upward trend will likely resume.