The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.06.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1613
• Prev. Close: 1.1659
• % chg. over the last day: +0.39 %

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany improved to its highest level in almost a year, but flash PMI indices paint a mixed picture, with private sector activity in the Eurozone showing signs of stabilization. Meanwhile, on the monetary policy front, analysts continue to expect the ECB to cut rates by 25 bps before the end of the year. Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said yesterday that the ECB could still cut interest rates in the second half of the year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1632, 1.1581, 1.1518, 1.1471, 1.1445, 1.1373, 1.1356
• Resistance levels: 1.1694

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro reached the resistance level of 1.1694 and tested liquidity above it. Given the MACD divergence, the price is likely to correct to the EMA lines in the 1.1650 area. Intraday, you can look for sell deals, as there are initiatives from sellers. For buy deals in continuation of the trend, consider the level of 1.1650 or 1.1632, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1446 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3614
• Prev. Close: 1.3665
• % chg. over the last day: +0.37 %

The weakening of the US dollar is supporting the British currency. On Thursday, the US Dollar Index fell to 97.5, its lowest level in more than three years, as easing geopolitical tensions, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and growing budget problems put pressure on the currency. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that rates should remain stable for now, citing the risk that the Trump administration’s tariffs could lead to higher inflation. However, he acknowledged that if it weren’t for concerns about tariffs, the Fed would likely continue to ease. Traders are now pricing in a more than 60 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, with the next move expected in September.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3652, 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
• Resistance levels: 1.3748

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The price is trying to test liquidity above 1.3745. Any correction of the pound should be seen as a chance to buy up to this level. The EMA lines or the support level of 1.3652 are the best for buying. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now, despite the MACD divergence.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3470 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 144.90
• Prev. Close: 145.24
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen strengthened to 145 per dollar, recovering from the previous session’s losses amid a weakening US dollar. Market sentiment improved as US officials are set to meet with their Iranian counterparts next week in an attempt to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, and the truce between Iran and Israel appears to be holding. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that if it weren’t for inflationary pressure from tariffs, the Central Bank would likely continue to cut rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 144.73, 144.36
• Resistance levels: 145.95, 146.62, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish, but close to a reversal. Over the past three trading days, the price has already tested the priority reversal level of 144.73 three times. This increases the likelihood of a breakdown and a trend reversal. However, it is still too early to sell, as buyers are holding the level. A consolidation below 144.73 will open the way for the price to 144.36, where there may be a sharp rebound amid a large accumulation of liquidity below.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 144.73 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3324
• Prev. Close: 3332
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24 %

On Thursday, gold rose to $3,340 per ounce, continuing its growth compared to the previous session, which was facilitated by the weakening of the US dollar and a decline in Treasury bond yields. This happened against the backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions: US and Iranian officials will meet next week as part of efforts to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and reduce tensions in the Middle East. However, caution remained after a US intelligence report suggested that recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had only delayed Tehran’s program by a few months. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the labor market. This data reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut, with markets increasingly leaning toward this happening later this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3301, 3293, 3272, 3248
• Resistance levels: 3337, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is downward. The price rebounded slightly from the support level of 3301 amid profit-taking by sellers. However, since the important liquidity pool below 3293 has not been tested, there is a high probability of a further decline. The resistance levels of 3337 or 3357 can be used for selling, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 3393, the upward trend will likely resume.