The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.08.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1592
• Prev. Close: 1.1571
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18 %

The euro stabilized just above $1.15, rebounding from the seven-week low reached on August 1, as broad dollar weakness followed disappointing US jobs data. A weaker-than-expected jobs report for July, along with sharp downward revisions to May and June data, fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as early as September. In response, President Trump fired a top Labor Department official, adding to market uncertainty. Money markets are now evaluating the possibility of two more Fed rate cuts this year, starting in September, while the European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1515, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• Resistance levels: 1.1611, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The situation has not changed much compared to yesterday. Currently, the price is trying to test the level of priority change at 1.1611. Intraday, we can consider buying from the EMA lines or the support level of 1.1515, but with confirmation. For selling, 1.1611 can be considered, but with the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1611 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3282
• Prev. Close: 1.3284
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

The British pound rebounded to USD 1.328 from an 11-week low as the US Dollar weakened following the release of a softer-than-expected employment report that signaled a cooling labor market. However, concerns over the UK’s economic outlook and financial health continue to weigh on sentiment. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects of the UK economy, fueling expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in August, with another cut likely by the end of the year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3214, 1.3137
• Resistance levels: 1.3313, 1.3368, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bearish. The British pound reached the resistance level of 1.3313 yesterday, sellers reacted, but instead of a pullback, the price fluttered near the level. Usually, this behavior happens when buyers try to break out of the level. For buying, it is best to use EMA lines, but with confirmation. Additionally, 1.3214 can be considered for purchase in the event of a deeper correction. For selling, there are no optimal entry points right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3470 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 147.21
• Prev. Close: 147.08
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

The Japanese yen exchange rate hovered around 147 per dollar on Tuesday, holding recent gains after the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s June meeting showed that policymakers remain open to further rate hikes if trade tensions ease. Nevertheless, the board said that current rates are appropriate amid continued uncertainty. A finance ministry official also emphasized that the BOJ should respond flexibly, particularly by managing bond purchases to maintain market stability. Last week, the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but raised its inflation forecast, while warning of growing risks from global trade tensions.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 146.63, 146.34
• Resistance levels: 147.36, 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The yen reached the support level of 146.63 on Monday, where buyers showed moderate initiative. The price is now aiming for resistance at 147.36, where it is important to assess the price action. A breakout and consolidation above this level will open the price to 147.89. If sellers respond to 147.36, selling to 146.63 and below could be considered.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 150.91 and consolidates below it, there is a high probability that the downtrend will resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3366
• Prev. Close: 3376
• % chg. over the last day: +0.30 %

Gold prices held near $3,370 per ounce on Tuesday after three days of gains, supported by rising expectations of a US interest rate cut in September. Traders now estimate the probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates next month at 94.4%, after a jobs report raised concerns about the outlook for the US economy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Monday that the time for a rate cut is approaching, given growing evidence of a cooling labor market and no signs of sustained rate-induced inflation. The precious metals were also supported by renewed concerns about the Fed’s independence following the resignation of Fed spokeswoman Adriana Kugler last Friday, allowing President Donald Trump to appoint a replacement more in line with his calls for lower interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3351, 3333, 3333, 3311, 3281
• Resistance levels: 3377, 3401, 3438

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an upward trend. The bullion price reached the resistance level of 3377 yesterday. Considering MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a corrective wave to 3351. Inside the day you can look for sell trades, but with a short stop loss. For buy deals, we should evaluate the price reaction at 3351.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.