The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.09.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1731
• Prev. Close: 1.1733
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. Markets estimate the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at around 96%, and the probability of a more significant half-point cut at around 4%. These forecasts are based on recent US data showing a cooling labor market and subdued inflation. Traders are also watching to see if Stephen Muran will be sworn in as a Fed representative in time for the meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1717, 1.1703, 1.1677, 1.1642, 1.1629, 1.1584, 1.1528
• Resistance levels: 1.1752, 1.1786

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The European currency formed a locked balance below 1.1703, after which the euro rose to 1.1740, where it encountered selling pressure. The price has been trading at EMA levels for the second day in a row, forming an accumulation. Intraday, consider buying at the support level of 1.1717 or from 1.1703 with a target of 1.1752. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1629 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3570
• Prev. Close: 1.3556
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10 %

The British pound remained close to the $1.35 mark, little changed from last week’s levels, after fresh data signaled a weak start to the third quarter. As expected, GDP stagnated in July, while industrial production unexpectedly fell by 0.9%, suggesting that tax and tariff increases are putting pressure on households and businesses. The Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision this week. No changes are expected after August’s interest rate cut. Attention is shifting to the central bank meeting on November 6, which will take place just before the budget is released, and many market participants still expect another rate cut.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3523, 1.3503, 1.3485, 1.3449, 1.3417
• Resistance levels: 1.3585

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The British currency is forming a flat accumulation in view of the narrowing triangle. Generally, such a narrowing of liquidity occurs before impulsive movements. Buy deals should be considered when the price consolidates above the downward trend line, which forms the upper border of the narrowing accumulation. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales, as the price is trading above the EMA and the bias is bullish.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3417 and settles below it, the downward trend is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 147.18
• Prev. Close: 147.69
• % chg. over the last day: +0.34 %

The yen fell to 147.4 per dollar on Friday after the US and Japan issued a joint statement confirming that exchange rates should remain market-driven and that excessive volatility is undesirable. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the statement carried weight, given the new US tariff order. However, he noted that specific currency levels had not been discussed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Domestically, investors continued to assess the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook amid mixed economic signals and political uncertainty. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently announced his resignation, facing mounting pressure after last year’s election defeat and growing divisions within the ruling party.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 147.32, 146.82, 146.74
• Resistance levels: 147.48, 148.07, 148.24, 148.77

From a technical perspective, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. Traders’ attention today is focused on the level of 147.48. Why? This resistance level is a stumbling block for buyers to achieve further growth. If the price manages to consolidate above this level, it will be a strong bullish sign. Sell deals should be considered if 147.48 is not broken and the price consolidates below 147.31.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.09 and consolidates below it, the downward trend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3637
• Prev. Close: 3644
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19 %

Gold continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty. Gold posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain amid expectations of a softening of US monetary policy. US data showed that annual inflation remained stable, as expected, after an unexpected decline in producer prices. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to its highest level in four years, highlighting the weakness of the labor market. Markets have already factored in the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and there is increasing speculation about the potential for a more significant move.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3620, 3600, 3578, 3560, 3500, 3469, 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374
• Resistance levels: 3655, 3700

From a technical analysis perspective, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has been forming a flat accumulation pattern with boundaries of 3620-3655 for the fourth day in a row. After testing liquidity below 3620 last Thursday, the price is now seeking to test liquidity above 3655. Next, it is important to assess the price reaction to the 3620 level. A false breakout of this level could trigger selling. But at the moment, the bias remains with buyers.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 3511 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.