The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.09.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1793
• Prev. Close: 1.1815
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19 %

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that recent evidence of weakness in the labor market has prompted the Central Bank to shift the balance of risks, giving preference to growth concerns. The chairman clarified that the unemployment rate had risen despite being at historically low levels, and job growth had slowed, which served as the basis for the rate cut in September despite persistent inflationary pressures. He also confirmed that there is no predetermined course for future rate decisions, but noted that policy remains restrictive. In September 2025, the FOMC lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, which was in line with expectations. The Fed’s SEP reflects another 50 bps by the end of 2025 and a quarter point in 2026, which is slightly more than expected in June.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1790, 1.1758, 1.1704
• Resistance levels: 1.1825, 1.1858

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro is forming an accumulation. It is important for buyers not to let the price fall below 1.1789 again, otherwise there may be a sell-off to 1.1758 or lower. Buy deals should be considered from 1.1825, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. It is better to refrain from trading inside the accumulation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1704 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3506
• Prev. Close: 1.3523
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12 %

The British pound fell just below $1.35, hovering near Friday’s two-week low of $1.346, as investors digested weaker-than-expected PMI data and remained cautious about the UK’s fiscal outlook. The September S&P Global PMI Index pointed to a sharp slowdown in UK private sector activity, falling short of market expectations. Output in the services sector grew at a slower pace, while the manufacturing sector saw a further decline. Additional pressure came from data last week showing that net borrowing by the public sector in August rose much higher than projections, heightening concerns ahead of November’s autumn budget.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3493, 1.3450, 1.3398
• Resistance levels: 1.3530, 1.3585, 1.3635, 1.3713

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The British pound looks weaker than the euro, despite attempts by buyers to raise the price. The price is currently forming a flat accumulation. Buy trades should be considered after a breakout of the upper accumulation limit of 1.3530. This will open the way to 1.3585. Sell trades should be considered after the price consolidates below 1.3493.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3635 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 147.69
• Prev. Close: 147.63
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen weakened to 148 per dollar, giving up the gains it had made earlier in the week, as the dollar strengthened after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took a cautious stance on further policy easing. Powell stressed that the path of rate cuts remains unclear as the Fed faces the challenge of curbing inflation while supporting a weakening labor market. In Japan, data showed that the manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in six months in September, while growth in the service sector slowed to a three-month low. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting inflation data in Tokyo and the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s July meeting for signals on future policy. On the political front, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader on October 4 to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 147.46, 147.14, 146.86
• Resistance levels: 147.95, 148.76, 148.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is upward. Buyers were unable to hold the support level of 147.80, after which the price fell to 146.46. Currently, the price is forming a flat accumulation with boundaries of 146.46-147.95. Trading within the flat is not recommended. If buyers impulsively push the price above 147.95, there will be an opportunity to buy up to 148.26 and above. A move below 146.46 will lead to a sell-off to 147.14.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 146.86 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3747
• Prev. Close: 3764
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

On Wednesday, the price of gold fell to around $3,750 per ounce but remained close to the new record set at the previous session as investors digested recent comments from the Federal Reserve. Attention now turns to the August PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as well as upcoming speeches by Fed officials, which may provide further policy signals. Gold also benefited from ongoing geopolitical tensions, with NATO saying it would take necessary measures to defend itself after Russia’s recent violation of Estonian airspace. Strong demand for exchange-traded funds provided additional support for gold prices, with inflows reaching a three-year high last week.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3700, 3672, 3637, 3615, 3600
• Resistance levels: 3750, 3800

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. There are still no prerequisites for a reversal and sales. Without the formation of a locked balance above the resistance level, there is no reason to expect a reversal of the movement. To continue the rally, it is best to use the support level of 3755 or 3736.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 3636 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.