The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.12.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1593
• Prev. Close: 1.1598
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

The euro is trading around 1.16 USD. In Germany, October retail sales fell by 0.3% versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, confirming persistent weakness in domestic demand. Annual inflation in November remained at 2.3%, while the harmonized EU measure accelerated to 2.6%, its highest since February. Money markets believe the ECB has ended its rate‑cutting cycle, giving the euro an advantage over the dollar due to interest rate differentials.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• Resistance levels: 1.1613, 1.1653

The euro continues to form a flat accumulation zone between 1.1590-1.1613. Today’s focus is on the price reaction at 1.1590. A break below on momentum could trigger a sell‑off to 1.1555. If buyers show initiative at 1.1590, intraday buy trades can be considered.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1587
• Res: 1.1613
• Note: Consider buying from 1.1590 with confirmation. A decisive break below 1.1590 could trigger selling.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3236
• Prev. Close: 1.3230
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

Sterling fell to 1.322 USD on Friday but gained about 1% for the week, marking its strongest rise since early August. Support came from investor reaction to the new government budget. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves presented the long‑awaited budget, defending it against criticism of higher spending and the largest tax burden since WWII. The plan aims to raise £26bn in additional taxes to fund social programs. Markets generally welcomed the signal of more disciplined fiscal policy, though the muted reaction suggests much of the news was already priced in. Further sterling upside remains limited as expectations of BoE rate cuts grow.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• Resistance levels: 1.3255

Sterling, like the euro, is consolidating in a flat range between 1.3210-1.3255. Traders should watch price action at 1.3210. A break below and close could trigger a decline to 1.3156. If buyers show initiative at 1.3210, intraday buy trades can be considered.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3210
• Res: 1.3255
• Note: Consider buying from 1.3210 with confirmation. A decisive break below could trigger selling.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 156.27
• Prev. Close: 156.13
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said Monday the regulator is carefully weighing a rate hike at the December 18-19 meeting. He noted that reduced risks from US tariffs increase the likelihood of achieving economic and price expectations, creating conditions for further tightening. Ueda emphasized the key role of wage dynamics: the BoJ must ensure companies remain committed to sustainable wage growth. Following these remarks, the yen hit a two‑week high.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.00, 154.41
• Resistance levels: 155.73, 156.26, 157.11, 157.87

Technically, price impulsively broke below the narrowing triangle, shifting intraday bias to sellers. For sell deals, consider resistance at 155.73 with confirmation. Profit target: 155.00. No optimal buy entries at present.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.00
• Res: 155.73
• Note: Look for sell trades from 155.73 targeting 155.00.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4159
• Prev. Close: 4220
• % chg. over the last day: +1.46%

Gold rose Wednesday to $4,200/oz, hitting a monthly high. The rally was driven by dollar weakness and lower opportunity costs of holding gold amid stronger Fed easing expectations. Futures and money markets now price in over 80% probability of a December 25 bp cut, while reports that Kevin Hassett is seen as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell further reinforced expectations of a dovish policy path. On the other hand, signs of easing geopolitical tensions, following reports of a preliminary peace plan for Ukraine, reduced safe‑haven demand, limiting gold’s upside potential.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4210, 4167, 4145, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• Resistance levels: 4246, 4379

On Monday’s Asian session, price impulsively broke above 4210 and reached resistance at 4246. A breakout above this level would open the path to 4379, so price may consolidate near 4246 to build liquidity. For buys, consider EMA lines or support at 4210 with confirmation. No optimal sell entries at present.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4210
• Res: 4246
• Note: For buy deals, consider 4210 or EMA lines with confirmation.