The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.12.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1622
• Prev. Close: 1.1695
• % chg. over the last day: +0.63%

The euro climbed to $1.17 amid dollar weakness, hawkish rhetoric from ECB representatives, and reduced political risks in France after the approval of the 2026 social security budget bill. The Fed, as expected, cut the rate and signaled a potential pause in January, which softened the dollar. Simultaneously, investors adjusted expectations regarding the ECB: statements from officials that further rate cuts in 2026 may not be necessary reinforced the premises for a tighter European policy stance. Lagarde noted a readiness to raise the growth prognoses for the Eurozone due to economic resilience, despite trade tensions.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1679, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• Resistance levels: 1.1728

The euro impulsively consolidated above 1.1679, and the path to 1.1728 is now open in the coming days. Buy deals can be considered from the support zone 1.1671-1.1678 or the EMA lines. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales. The scenario for growth will be cancelled if the price drops below 1.1656.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1679
• Res: 1.1728
• Note: Сonsidering buy deals from the support zone 1.1671-1.1678 or the EMA lines.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3296
• Prev. Close: 1.3381
• % chg. over the last day: +0.64 %

The British pound strengthened to $1.34, the highest level since October 22nd, amid overall dollar weakness and reduced expectations for further Bank of England policy easing in 2026. The Fed’s rate cut decision and the signal of a potential pause in January supported dollar-competing currencies. However, the market still prices in about 84% probability of a BoE rate cut next week, despite accelerating wage growth and persistent inflationary pressure. Investors almost fully factor in a second rate cut by June, estimating the chances of its earlier implementation in April at approximately 75%. UK monthly GDP data, to be published on Friday, may also influence market expectations.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3354, 1.3296, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• Resistance levels: 1.3385, 1.3454

The British pound consolidated above 1.3354, which potentially may lead to growth up to 1.3454. The price is currently hitting the resistance level of 1.3385, but the seller reaction here is weak. Buy deals can be considered from the support level 1.3354 or the EMA lines. It is crucial for buyers not to let the price consolidate below the EMA lines.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3354
• Res: 1.3385
• Note: Buy deals can be considered from the support level 1.3354 or the EMA lines.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 156.78
• Prev. Close: 155.99
• % chg. over the last day: -0.50 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.5 per dollar, extending the previous session’s gain amid a sharp weakening of the dollar after the Fed rate cut. The market shifts focus to the Bank of Japan meeting next week, where investors anticipate a rate hike following Ueda’s statements that the economy is close to achieving the inflation target. His comments on policy guidelines for 2026 will be of particular significance. Despite the strengthening, the yen remains under pressure due to weak economic growth, fiscal risks, and the deep interest rate differential with other major economies, as Japanese rates remain among the lowest globally.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.50, 154.91, 154.41, 154.17
• Resistance levels: 156.08, 156.57, 157.11

The Japanese currency consolidated below 156.08 and reached the support level of 155.50, where buyers have shown initiative again. It is now important to evaluate the price’s reaction to 155.50. If sellers are active here, intraday sell trades targeting 155.50 and lower can be considered. However, if the price impulsively consolidates above 156.08, it will open the path to 156.57.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.50
• Res: 156.08
• Note: Considering sell trades from the resistance level 156.08. The buying scenario is only valid if the price closes above this level.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4212
• Prev. Close: 4230
• % chg. over the last day: +0.43%

Gold prices rose above $4,230 per ounce, retesting the record October levels in reaction to the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Although the committee maintained the plan for only one additional rate cut next year, Powell’s more flexible rhetoric on the potential depth of future easing increased market expectations: the probability of two or more cuts in 2026 rose to 68%. Simultaneously, the regulator improved growth expectations and lowered inflation expectations for 2025–2026.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4219, 4163, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• Resistance levels: 4194, 4181, 4255, 4379

Gold continues to trade in a wide range. The intraday bias is currently with the buyers. Buy trades are best considered from the support level 4205, but with confirmation. The profit target is the upper boundary of the wide range, 4255. It is crucial for buyers to hold the price above 4205. Otherwise, consolidation below this level may trigger a sharp sell-off.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4205
• Res: 4255
• Note: Looking for buy deals from the support level 4205, but with confirmation. The profit target is the upper boundary of the wide range, 4255.