The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.02.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1873
• Prev. Close: 1.1851
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18%

Macro data from the Eurozone showed a 1.4% decline in industrial production in December, which matched expectations. In the US, inflation slowed to 2.4%, strengthening expectations of a possible Fed policy easing. Investors are now awaiting the publication of the Fed minutes on Wednesday to assess further rate guidance. The medium-term picture maintains a slight advantage for the euro over the dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1836, 1.1777, 1.1754, 1.1726
• Resistance levels: 1.1894, 1.1955, 1.2050, 1.3000

The euro has declined to the lower boundary of the flat range at 1.1836. It is important to evaluate the price reaction here. It is crucial for buyers to hold this level, as an impulsive breakout and consolidation below could open the path to a decline toward the 1.1777 area. If buyers show initiative from 1.1836, intraday buy trades can be considered with targets up to 1.1894.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1836
• Res: 1.1894
• Note: Looking for buy deals from the 1.1836 support level, but with confirmation. For sales, an impulsive breakout of 1.1836 is required.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3640
• Prev. Close: 1.3627
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10 %

The British pound fluctuated around 1.36 dollars. Investors are preparing for a week packed with UK macroeconomic statistics, including inflation, labor market, and retail sales data. Annual inflation is expected to slow to 3.0% in January, the lowest level since March 2025, while the core figure is expected to drop to 3.1%, the lowest in over four years. Prognoses also suggest unemployment will remain at 5.1% in Q4, the highest since early 2021, amid a further slowdown in wage growth. Against this backdrop, markets continue to price in further policy easing.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3609, 1.3547, 1.3514
• Resistance levels: 1.3670, 1.3697, 1.3732, 1.3787, 1.3871, 1.4000

Today, key attention is focused on the 1.3609 support; it is important for buyers to hold this level. If a bullish reaction emerges from this zone, intraday buys can be considered with an immediate target around 1.3670. If 1.3609 is broken impulsively, it will increase pressure and open the path to a decline toward 1.3547.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3609
• Res: 1.3670
• Note: It is appropriate to look for intraday buys from the 1.3609 support level, but with confirmation. A breakout of 1.3609 will trigger a sell-off.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.63
• Prev. Close: 153.44
• % chg. over the last day: +0.53 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen strengthened toward the 153 mark per dollar, recovering previous session losses amid increased expectations of an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike. Former board member Seiji Adachi stated on Monday that the central bank could raise the key rate as early as April, once enough data is accumulated to justify such a move. Despite concerns that the government might hinder policy normalization, Prime Minister Takaichi has so far refrained from pressuring the regulator, even amid market expectations of tightening.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 152.61, 152.17, 152.17, 151.54
• Resistance levels: 153.67, 153.83, 154.58, 155.19

The yen continues to form a flat range between 152.61-153.67. After liquidity was taken above the upper boundary of the range, a bearish reaction appeared, increasing the likelihood of a move toward the bottom of the accumulation. Intraday priority can be given to sells with targets around 152.61 and further toward 152.17. Near these supports, it is important to evaluate the price reaction and the presence of demand before making further decisions.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 152.61
• Res: 153.67
• Note: Looking for sell deals from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buy deals, we expect bullish initiative from 152.17.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 5022
• Prev. Close: 4991
• % chg. over the last day: -0.62 %

On Tuesday, gold dropped below $4960 per ounce, recording its second consecutive session of decline amid low liquidity due to holidays in Asia and the recent holiday in the US. Chinese markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year celebrations, limiting trading activity. Investors are awaiting the publication of the Fed minutes, the preliminary US GDP estimate, and PCE inflation data for additional signals on the future policy trajectory.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4897, 4815, 4745, 4605, 4400
• Resistance levels: 4945, 5039, 5086, 5145, 5230

A bearish bias persists on intraday timeframes for gold, increasing the probability of a continued decline toward the 4815 area. The 4945 resistance zone and dynamic resistance from the EMA lines can be considered as areas to look for sell trades. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys, as no significant bullish initiative appeared after the liquidity zone test.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4945
• Res: 5039
• Note: For intraday, consider sells from the EMA lines or the 4945 resistance level. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.