The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.02.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1807
• Prev. Close: 1.1797
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08%

On Thursday, the euro exchange rate stabilized just below the $1.18 mark. Investors have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of Friday’s inflation data, which should clarify the future trajectory of ECB policy. Currently, money markets price in only a 30% probability of a rate cut by December 2026, reflecting confidence in the regulator’s “patient” approach amid slowing wage growth. Speaking before the European Parliament, Christine Lagarde confirmed the prognosis of inflation converging toward the 2% target in the medium term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1789, 1.1771, 1.1742, 1.1726
• Resistance levels: 1.1835, 1.1850, 1.1894, 1.1955, 1.2050

Despite yesterday’s decline, technically, the situation remains virtually unchanged. The EUR/USD pair is aiming for the key resistance range of 1.1835-1.1850. This section of the chart will be decisive for short-term dynamics, as major sell volumes are concentrated here. An impulsive breakout of the 1.1850 level would confirm the strength of the bullish momentum and set the next target at 1.1894. Intraday, it is best to look for buy trades from the EMA lines or the 1.1789 support level. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1789
• Res: 1.1835
• Note: Intraday, primarily considering buy trades from the EMA lines or the 1.1789 support level. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3550
• Prev. Close: 1.3480
• % chg. over the last day: -0.51%

Sterling dropped toward the $1.35 mark on Thursday. Investors remain cautious amid key by-elections perceived as a referendum on confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A Labour defeat could strengthen critics within the party, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing scandal surrounding Peter Mandelson and his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, which has already led to the resignation of the Downing Street Chief of Staff. Markets fear that political instability will force the government and Chancellor Rachel Reeves to loosen fiscal discipline to maintain approval ratings, questioning debt sustainability. External pressure is added by Donald Trump’s new 10% tariffs, which have already taken effect.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3446, 1.3426, 1.3401, 1.3381, 1.3292
• Resistance levels: 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound appears weaker than the euro. Yesterday, the price saw an impulsive decline from the 1.3582-1.3606 zone. The intraday bias currently favors sellers, but buyers are attempting to prevent the price from falling below 1.3446. High probability suggests the price will remain trading within the 1.3446-1.3501 range until the end of the week. Intraday, traders should look for sell trades from 1.3501, but with confirmation and targets around 1.3446. For buys, it is best to wait for an impulsive breakout of 1.3501.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3446
• Res: 1.3501
• Note: Intraday, looking for sell trades from the 1.3501 resistance level with confirmation. For buys, it is best to wait for an impulsive breakout of 1.3501.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 156.36
• Prev. Close: 156.11
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened to 155.9 per dollar but is ending the week in the red. The currency is pressured by political uncertainty: the appointment of two dovish members to the BoJ board and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s concerns over rising rates contrast with Hajime Takata’s hawkish calls for immediate tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda has taken a wait-and-see stance, promising to carefully study data before the March and April meetings. A decisive factor was the slowdown of Tokyo inflation to a one-year low due to electricity subsidies. This reduced the chances of a March rate hike as real price pressure weakened, depriving the yen of fundamental support in the short term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.70, 155.34, 154.86, 154.00, 152.61
• Resistance levels: 156.43, 156.53, 157.37

The Japanese yen is trading in the 155.70–156.43 range. During the Asian session, the price made a false breakout of the 155.70 support level, followed by buyer initiative. This opens opportunities for intraday buys. The profit target is the 156.43 resistance level. If the price consolidates below 155.70 again, expect a sell-off to 155.34.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.70
• Res: 156.43
• Note: Looking for intraday buys from the 155.70 support level with confirmation. Sell trades are appropriate only after a breakout of 155.70.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 5164
• Prev. Close: 5184
• % chg. over the last day: +0.38%

Gold prices are trading around $5190, holding near four-week highs. The main driver remains US trade protectionism: following the February 20 Supreme Court decision, the Trump administration introduced a new 10% global tariff, warning of an increase to 15%. These steps have intensified inflationary risks and demand for safe-haven assets. The metal is also supported by the deadlocked negotiations in Geneva and steady central bank purchases (approx. 60 tons per month). However, growth is limited by the Fed’s hawkish stance: PCE inflation at 3% precludes rapid rate cuts. Jobless claims at 212,000 confirmed labor market stability, keeping the dollar strong.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 5151, 5094, 5060, 5038, 4960, 4907, 4842
• Resistance levels: 5204, 5217, 5247, 5450

Gold continues to trade in a volatile sideways range of 5151-5204, reflecting extreme investor caution. An impulsive breakout of the 5204 mark and consolidation above it would signal a transition to growth, with a target of 5217 or even 5247 during an aggressive rally. Such a scenario is most likely upon the publication of today’s PPI report or negative news regarding military actions in Iran. While the price remains within the range, it is also worth considering sales from 5204 or 5217, but with confirmation in the form of seller initiative.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 5151
• Res: 5204
• Note: Intraday, considering sales from the 5204 level with a target down to 5151. An impulsive breakout of 5204 will open the path to 5217 and higher.