The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.03.09

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1606
• Prev. Close: 1.1616
• % chg. over the last day: +0.09%

The Euro fell to $1.1515, hitting its lowest levels since late November amid a massive flight to the safe-haven US dollar. The sharp escalation of the conflict, including strikes on Beirut and the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, has created a power vacuum in Iran that Washington intends to address. These events, combined with the energy shock, are forcing the market to price in a “hawkish” ECB response: the probability of a rate hike in July has jumped to 55%, and to 85% by December. Despite the threat of stagnation, the regulator is forced to prioritize the fight against imported inflation, putting additional pressure on Eurozone bonds.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1528, 1.1468
• Resistance levels: 1.1621, 1.1654, 1.1707, 1.1724, 1.1747, 1.1766

The European currency opened with a downward price gap on Monday and reached the 1.1528 support level. Buyers have shown initiative here, and some short-sellers were trapped below the level. Today, focus on the price reaction at 1.1528. If buyers defend this level, intraday buy trades with short targets can be considered. An additional factor for a correction is the MACD divergence. However, it is vital to understand that the primary trend remains with the sellers, and there is a high probability of a decline to 1.1468 this week.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1528
• Res: 1.1621
• Note: Consider intraday buy trades from 1.1528 support, but only with confirmation. An impulse breakout of this level will open the way to 1.1468.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3348
• Prev. Close: 1.3408
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

The British pound collapsed to $1.33, reaching its lowest level since December amid the sharp escalation in the Middle East. Strikes in Beirut and the political vacuum in Iran following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei triggered an energy shock that effectively cancelled the Bank of England’s plans for policy easing. Market expectations for a rate cut this month have plummeted from 80% to less than 20%, and the probability of even one cut before the end of 2026 is now estimated at below 50%. Investors are pricing in a “higher-for-longer” scenario where the fight against imported inflation takes priority over supporting economic growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3306, 1.3253
• Resistance levels: 1.3404, 1.3432, 1.3454, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound, like the euro, opened with a downward price gap. An SMT divergence has formed between the instruments (where one instrument breaks an extreme and the other does not). In most cases, such a formation leads to a reversal or a deep correction. Technically, the pound is still forming a flat accumulation between 1.3306 and 1.3404. The price has performed a false breakout of the lower boundary; intraday buy trades can now be considered from this level, targeting a close of the gap. It is crucial for buyers not to let the price consolidate below 1.3306; otherwise, the price will move to test last week’s lows.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3306
• Res: 1.3404
• Note: Look for intraday buy trades from the 1.3306 support level. An impulse breakout of 1.3306 will lead to a price drop to 1.3253.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 157.54
• Prev. Close: 157.82
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18%

The Japanese yen weakened to 158.5 per dollar, reaching a six-week low as oil prices soared above $100. Japan’s economy is in a zone of extreme risk, as the country imports 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, with 70% typically passing through the now-paralyzed Strait of Hormuz. To prevent a fuel collapse, Tokyo has already instructed national oil storage facilities to prepare for an emergency release of strategic reserves, which at current rates would last approximately 250 days. The yen’s fall is driven by a critical increase in import costs, sharply expanding the trade deficit. Strengthening of the USD as a primary safe haven adds further pressure.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 157.96, 157.38, 156.80, 156.17, 155.70
• Resistance levels: 159.22, 159.47

The yen continues to weaken against the dollar; the price opened with an upward gap and consolidated above the key 157.96 level. This level can now be used as a “mirror” for opening buy trades. The intraday bias remains with the buyers, but it is important to monitor MACD divergence. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 157.96
• Res: 159.22
• Note: Seek intraday buys from the EMA lines or the 157.96 level, but with confirmation. No optimal sell setups are visible.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 5084
• Prev. Close: 5174
• % chg. over the last day: +1.77%

Gold rose above $5,120 as a critical US labor market report outweighed inflation fears. The jump in unemployment to 4.4% and the loss of 92,000 jobs in February forced investors to seek protection in the precious metal amid recession threats. Although the conflict with Iran continues to drive oil prices up, gold is currently benefiting from falling Treasury yields and lower opportunity costs. The market has entered a stagflationary phase where demand for systemic security has become stronger than the need for dollar liquidity.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 5049, 4996, 4963
• Resistance levels: 5136, 5206, 5226, 5334, 5379, 5416

At the Asian session open, gold fell sharply, neutralizing Friday’s gains. Buyers are attempting to regain initiative intraday, but sellers are currently stronger. Today, the primary focus is on the 5136 resistance level. If sellers show a reaction here again, it will open opportunities for sales down to 5049 and below. An impulse breakout of 5136 could trigger a rise to 5206.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 5049
• Res: 5136
• Note: Priority is on sell trades from 5136, but with mandatory confirmation. Buys are appropriate only after an impulse breakout of 5136.