The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.03.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1550
• Prev. Close: 1.1637
• % chg. over the last day: +0.75%

Monday concluded with a volatile reversal in the currency market: the EUR/USD rate rose by 0.75% as the initial defensive impulse for the dollar faded alongside the collapse in oil prices. While the US status as the world’s largest oil producer briefly supported the Greenback when quotes were above $100, the subsequent G7 intervention and Donald Trump’s dovish rhetoric shifted investor focus back to fundamentals – specifically, the narrowing interest rate differential. The euro received strong support from the reduction in energy pressure, as the Eurozone economy remains critically dependent on hydrocarbon imports. The retreat of oil to $86 per barrel has lessened fears of a severe EU recession. Meanwhile, swap markets remain extremely cautious: the probability of an ECB rate hike on March 19 is estimated at just 1%, while the probability of a Fed rate cut on March 17-18 stands at a symbolic 4%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1607, 1.1468
• Resistance levels: 1.1654, 1.1707, 1.1724, 1.1747, 1.1766

The European currency recovered yesterday, fully closing the opening price gap. Furthermore, the price closed impulsively above the EMA lines, shifting the price structure. Intraday bias has been seized by buyers. Under these conditions, buy trades can be considered intraday from the 1.1607 support level, targeting 1.1654. It is then crucial to evaluate the price reaction at this liquidity point; if sellers show initiative at 1.1654, it may open selling opportunities.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1607
• Res: 1.1654
• Note: Look for intraday buys from 1.1607 support, but only with confirmation. Sells are appropriate following a false breakout of the 1.1654 resistance.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3340
• Prev. Close: 1.3442
• % chg. over the last day: +0.77%

The yield on 10-year UK Government bonds (gilts) saw a sharp jump of 16 basis points, hitting a five-month high of 4.722%. This surge resulted from a massive bond sell-off as investors urgently revised Bank of England rate expectations. The primary trigger was oil holding above $100/barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which for the import-dependent UK economy implies an inevitable inflation spike. The situation is worsened by UK bonds falling more sharply than US or German peers. Investors fear the energy shock could add 0.3 to 1.2 percentage points to annual UK inflation, forcing the BoE to hold rates at 3.75% or higher.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3432, 1.3404, 1.3306, 1.3253
• Resistance levels: 1.3454, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound, like the euro, recovered sharply yesterday following investor risk reassessment. Technically, the price has consolidated above the EMA lines, changing the structure. Intraday bias favors buyers, but the price has deviated significantly from the moving averages and is trading just below a resistance zone. For buys, it is better to wait for a correction to 1.3404 or 1.3385. For sells, evaluate the price reaction at 1.3454 and 1.3501.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3404
• Res: 1.3454
• Note: Seek intraday buy trades from support levels 1.3404 or 1.3385. For sells, monitor the price reaction at the 1.3454 resistance level.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 158.32
• Prev. Close: 157.68
• % chg. over the last day: -0.40%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen strengthened to 157.6 per dollar, showing a notable recovery from its drop to the 159 level a day prior. The main driver was the sharp decline in oil and gas prices; easing the energy shock is vital for Japan as a major net fuel importer. Safe-haven demand for the dollar also waned following Trump’s optimistic claims that the Iran operation is concluding faster than planned. Fundamental support came from strong domestic data: Q4 GDP was revised up to 0.3% (from 0.1%), and real wages grew for the first time in 13 months, giving the BoJ room for future policy normalization.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 157.38, 156.80, 156.17, 155.70
• Resistance levels: 157.97, 158.65, 156.91

The yen strengthened sharply on Wednesday amid USD weakness and a positive macro backdrop. Technically, the price closed impulsively below the EMA lines, shifting the intraday priority to bearish. The price will likely test liquidity below the 157.38 support; if buyers show initiative here, it opens intraday buy opportunities up to 157.97. An impulsive break of 157.38 opens the way to 156.91.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 157.38
• Res: 157.97
• Note: Look for intraday buys from 157.38 support, but with confirmation. An impulse breakout of 157.38 opens the path to 156.91.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 5186
• Prev. Close: 5137
• % chg. over the last day: -0.95%

On Tuesday, gold prices rose toward $5,170 per ounce, fully recouping previous losses. Support came from a weakening US dollar after Donald Trump described the military operation against Iran as a “short-term excursion,” predicting its swift end. Despite Washington’s optimism, gold remains the primary haven, as Tehran rejected Trump’s claims, stating that they would determine the conflict’s end themselves.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 5136, 5049, 4996, 4963
• Resistance levels: 5206, 5226, 5334, 5379, 5416

Gold recovered yesterday after testing liquidity below 5049. The price closed impulsively above the EMA lines and the 5136 level, which now acts as a “mirror” support. Currently, the price is approaching the 5206-5226 supply zone. The reaction here will determine the next vector. If sellers show initiative in this zone, look for intraday sells toward 5136. An impulse breakout above 5226 opens the way to 5334.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 5136
• Res: 5206
• Note: Priority is on sell trades from the 5206–5226 supply zone, but with mandatory confirmation. An impulse breakout of this zone opens the path to 5334.