The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.03.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1432
• Prev. Close: 1.1507
• % chg. over the last day: +0.65%

The euro is trading above $1.14, attempting to stabilize after a recent pullback to its lowest level since July of last year, triggered by US dollar strength amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The Israeli side does not rule out further escalation with Iran in the near term, while oil prices clearly highlight the ongoing vulnerability of the European economy to energy shocks. The key focus for market participants is Thursday’s ECB meeting, where investors expect a clear signal on how the regulator plans to counter inflationary pressures driven by the conflict and elevated commodity prices. Money markets have fully priced in a rate hike by July, and the probability of a second tightening step by year‑end is estimated at roughly 85%. Analysts predict that the policy rate will remain at 2.15% on Thursday, and Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against expectations of monetary easing this summer, citing risks of disruptions in gas and oil supplies.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1457, 1.1383
• Resistance levels: 1.1490, 1.1566, 1.1666

The euro failed to firmly consolidate above the 1.1490 resistance level. The price reached the root of the downward impulse before declining, and indicated persistent bearish pressure. Under such market conditions, it is preferable to look for selling opportunities from 1.1490, but only with confirmation. Profit targets are support levels at 1.1457 and 1.1383. If the price manages to consolidate above 1.1490 again, the intraday bias will shift to bullish with an upside target at 1.1566.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1457
• Res: 1.1490
• Note: Intraday focus is on selling from 1.1490 with confirmation. An impulsive breakout above 1.1490 will lead to growth toward 1.1566.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3235
• Prev. Close: 1.3320
• % chg. over the last day: +0.64%

The British pound is holding slightly above the $1.32 level, attempting to recover losses after plunging to three‑month lows. The key source of uncertainty remains the escalation of the Middle East conflict: the Israeli side acknowledges the possibility of prolonged military action, while Trump has effectively ruled out a quick diplomatic settlement with Iran. The energy market reacted with a sharp rise in prices, which immediately affected monetary policy expectations. As a result, the Bank of England’s rate trajectory has undergone a dramatic reassessment: while in early March markets expected two rate cuts this year, futures now imply a cumulative increase of roughly 23 bps by December. The upcoming BoE meeting will likely end with rates unchanged, with the main intrigue centered around the vote split.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3214
• Resistance levels: 1.3293, 1.3340, 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3463, 1.3501, 1.3582

The British pound also failed to consolidate above the 1.3293 resistance level. The price tested the root of the downward impulse and then impulsively closed below 1.3293. Under such conditions, intraday traders should look for selling opportunities targeting 1.3245 and lower. For buying opportunities, it is important to see a renewed consolidation above 1.3293 on an impulse with absorption of the last bearish move.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3214
• Res: 1.3293
• Note: Intraday focus is on selling from 1.3293 with confirmation. For buying, a renewed breakout above 1.3293 with bullish absorption is required.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 159.62
• Prev. Close: 159.07
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34%

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama emphasized in her morning remarks that current volatility is detached from economic fundamentals and reaffirmed the government’s full readiness to intervene in the currency market at any moment, especially given the damaging impact of high oil prices on household budgets. The situation for the yen is complicated by the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance and geopolitical pressure. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted gradual progress toward the 2% inflation target, but markets are convinced that the March meeting will see no rate change due to risks associated with the war in Iran. Additional tension in relations with the US stems from Tokyo’s refusal to send naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz – Japan prefers diplomatic solutions to the energy crisis.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 159.00, 158.58, 158.24, 157.87, 157.32
• Resistance levels: 159.74, 160.21

A flat accumulation range is beginning to form between 158.85 and 159.74. With high probability, the price will remain within this corridor until the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday. At the moment, the price is in the supply zone, increasing the likelihood of intraday downside movement. However, the broader bias remains bullish, so it is better to refrain from trading this pair today.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 158.85
• Res: 159.74
• Note: No optimal entry points today.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 5015
• Prev. Close: 5006
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

On Monday, gold prices corrected toward the psychological level of $5,000 per ounce. The decline was triggered by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Washington is effectively allowing Iranian tankers (including those serving India and China) to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to maintain global energy supply stability. This news pushed WTI crude down to $95, easing inflation expectations and lowering 10‑year Treasury yields, stripping gold of part of its speculative support. The precious metals market is now in a wait‑and‑see mode ahead of the Fed meeting, where a projected hawkish pause is creating technical pressure on the non‑yielding asset.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4963
• Resistance levels: 5044, 5125, 5175, 5223, 5238, 5334

Gold is beginning to form a flat accumulation range between 4963 and 5044. Today, traders should focus on the 5044 resistance level. Sellers are likely to defend this level to maintain the downward bias. Therefore, intraday selling from 5044 is preferred, but only with confirmation. An impulsive breakout above 5044 will shift the intraday bias to bullish, opening the path toward 5125.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4963
• Res: 5044
• Note: Consider selling from 5044 with minimal risk. An impulsive consolidation above 5044 will lead to growth toward 5125.