The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.03.31

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1503
• Prev. Close: 1.1464
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34%

By the end of March, the European currency came under significant pressure, falling to the 1.15‑dollar mark. This level brought the euro close to the local mid‑month lows, recording a total decline of more than 2% against the dollar. The main driver of the decline was a massive flight of investors into safe‑haven assets. The economic backdrop within the Eurozone only worsened the situation. Fresh inflation data from Germany confirmed an acceleration in price growth in the bloc’s largest economy, which, combined with a sharp deterioration in business sentiment across Europe, formed classic signs of a stagflationary shock. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau confirmed the regulator’s determination to fight inflation caused by the energy crisis, but his caution about specific timing only underscores the difficult situation the ECB faces as it tries to contain prices without collapsing an already stagnating economy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1450, 1.1415
• Resistance levels: 1.1490, 1.1548, 1.1587, 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency failed to hold above 1.1490 per dollar and fell to the support level of 1.1450, where buyers again stepped in. But sellers are not ready to give up their positions, preventing the price from consolidating above 1.1490. Moreover, the EMA lines are strongly supporting the downward movement, acting as dynamic resistance. Under such market conditions, for long positions, it is important to see a repeated consolidation above 1.1490. As long as the price remains below this level, the intraday bias remains bearish, with a continuation to the downside.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1450
• Res: 1.1490
• Note: Sell trades may be considered from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buying, it is important that the price consolidates above 1.1490 again.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3256
• Prev. Close: 1.3185
• % chg. over the last day: -0.53%

The British pound ended March under strong pressure, settling near 1.32 dollars. This level corresponds to early‑December lows and marks a monthly decline of more than 1%. The main factor behind the weakening of the sterling was the global flight of investors into safe‑haven assets, primarily the US dollar, amid the escalation in the Middle East. The geopolitical shock triggered a radical shift in expectations regarding UK monetary policy. Whereas at the beginning of the year, traders expected rate cuts to support the economy, the consensus outlook has now shifted toward tightening: the market is pricing in at least two rate hikes in 2026. Investors fear that soaring oil prices will trigger a new wave of inflation, which the Bank of England will have to suppress with higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, internal divisions within the Bank are emerging regarding the future policy path, highlighting the complexity of the situation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3179, 1.3125
• Resistance levels: 1.3222, 1.3277, 1.3322, 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound, like the euro, continued to decline amid dollar strength. This is one of the rare cases where SMT divergence between instruments did not work. At the moment, the price is trading below the dynamic EMA lines, and sellers are preventing it from rising above 1.3222. Today, the focus is on this level: its breakout will open the way toward 1.3277. But as long as the price remains below 1.3222, intraday setups should favor selling.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3179
• Res: 1.3222
• Note: Sell trades may be considered from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buying, it is important that the price consolidates above 1.3222 again.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 160.19
• Prev. Close: 159.70
• % chg. over the last day: -0.30%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen stabilized at 159.6 per dollar, holding its position after a sharp recovery in the previous session. The relative calm in the market is due to a series of strong verbal interventions from Tokyo. After the exchange rate broke the psychological level of 160, both the deputy finance minister and the finance minister confirmed the government’s readiness for “decisive measures.” Investors interpret these statements as a direct signal of a possible currency intervention similar to the one carried out in July 2024. The Japanese economy remains highly vulnerable to developments in the Middle East due to its heavy reliance on hydrocarbon imports. The sharp rise in oil prices (WTI above 101 dollars) adds additional pressure on the yen by widening the country’s trade deficit. Despite the local stabilization, the yen is down more than 2% for March.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 159.29, 158.37, 157.87, 157.32
• Resistance levels: 159.97, 161.29

The Japanese yen corrected to the support zone near 159.29, after which buyers again pushed the price toward the psychological level of 160. The 160.00-160.25 zone will now act as a supply zone, making sell trades appropriate here, but only with seller confirmation. For buying, it is important to see the price reaction at the support level of 159.29. A breakout of this level may trigger a strong and sharp sell‑off (yen strengthening).

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.29
• Res: 159.97
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from the support level of 159.29, but with confirmation. Sell trades are relevant from the 160.00-160.25 zone.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4484
• Prev. Close: 4511
• % chg. over the last day: +0.60%

On Monday, gold prices consolidated above 4,510 dollars per ounce, reflecting a complex struggle between diplomatic optimism and harsh economic realities. Despite current volatility, gold is trading more than 15% below its March highs. The main restraining factor is the critical rise in Brent crude prices, which exceeded 115 dollars. Such a powerful energy shock radically changes expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions: persistent inflation deprives the regulator of the ability to aggressively cut interest rates. Combined with a strengthening dollar and renewed demand for US Treasuries, this reduces the investment appeal of gold as a non‑yielding asset.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4351, 4304, 4169
• Resistance levels: 4601, 4732

Gold continues to form a wide, volatile range between 4301 and 4601, with strong intraday buyer initiative. The price has now reached the upper boundary of the range, where sellers have shown activity. The EMA lines and the ascending trendline currently act as support. Under such market conditions, intraday sell trades may be considered from the 4600 area toward the EMA lines. A breakout of the trendlines may trigger a sharp sell‑off in gold. The MACD divergence also indicates a likely pullback.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4351
• Res: 4601
• Note: Sell trades may be considered from the 4600 area, but with intraday confirmation. For buying, evaluate the price reaction to the ascending trendline.