The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.04.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1776
• Prev. Close: 1.1765
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09%

On Friday, the European currency showed impressive dynamics, rising above 1.18 dollars. This is the highest level since the beginning of the military confrontation between the US and Iran. The main driver of growth was the broad weakness of the US dollar, triggered by a sharp decline in geopolitical risks. The unblocking of the key maritime artery led to a collapse in oil prices by more than 10%, which significantly eased concerns about a global inflation shock. But by the end of the day, all gains were erased amid rumors of a new escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. From a monetary policy perspective, the ECB leadership remains cautious. Christine Lagarde acknowledged last week that the prolonged period of high energy prices has negatively affected the region’s economic trajectory.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1721, 1.1643, 1.1605
• Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro reached the resistance level of 1.1849 amid optimism after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But by the end of the day, optimism faded sharply, and Monday’s opening occurred with a downward price gap – the opening price was below Friday’s close, which constitutes a break of the bullish trend. Technically, the price will aim for the support level of 1.1721, and it is crucial for buyers to defend this level to prevent the trend from turning bearish. Intraday, short trades may be considered from the EMA lines or from the resistance level of 1.1775.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1721
• Res: 1.1775
• Note: Intraday, short trades may be considered from the EMA lines or from 1.1775. Long trades are considered from 1.1721 with confirmation.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3518
• Prev. Close: 1.3518
• % chg. over the last day: 0.0%

This week will be extremely eventful for the United Kingdom. The market is preparing for the release of inflation data, which is expected to rise to 3.3% year‑on‑year. The labor‑market situation remains difficult: unemployment is likely to remain at 5.2%, the highest in five years, while wage growth (3.6%) will be the slowest since October 2020. The only bright spot may be the March retail‑sales report, where a recovery in consumer activity is expected.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3478, 1.3445, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Resistance levels: 1.3508, 1.3541, 1.3590, 1.3631

After testing liquidity at 1.3590, the British pound sharply corrected and reached the support level of 1.3478. It is important to note that the price opened with a downward gap and below Friday’s opening, indicating a break in the bullish structure. Technically, the price is now trapped between 1.3478 and 1.3508, with the intraday bias favoring sellers. Under such market conditions, long trades should be sought from 1.3478 or 1.3445, but with confirmation. For selling, evaluate price reaction at the resistance level of 1.3508 or from the EMA lines.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3478
• Res: 1.3508
• Note: Long trades should be sought from 1.3478 or 1.3445 with confirmation. For selling, evaluate the reaction at 1.3508 or from the EMA lines.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 159.19
• Prev. Close: 158.61
• % chg. over the last day: -0.36%

On Monday, the Japanese yen came under pressure again, retreating to the psychologically important level of 159 yen per dollar. The currency completely lost the advantage gained at the end of last week, which was a direct consequence of the sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent surge in energy prices. The main negative factor for the yen, as the currency of a resource‑importing country, was the rise in oil prices by more than 5%. The market reacted to the breakdown of diplomatic agreements: after the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Tehran officially withdrew its commitments to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and refused to participate in the planned round of negotiations. This revived fears of long‑term supply shortages and an inflation shock.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 158.27, 157.59
• Resistance levels: 159.15, 159.46, 159.97

On Friday, the yen sharply strengthened to the support level of 157.59, after which a strong rebound occurred. At the moment, the price has returned to the root of the downward impulse at 159.15, where sellers showed a moderate reaction. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, the yen will likely continue to weaken. Under such market conditions, long trades are appropriate after the price consolidates above 159.15 with a target of 159.46 and higher. For selling, evaluate price reaction at 159.46 or 159.97.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.27
• Res: 159.15
• Note: Long trades are appropriate after consolidation above 159.15 with a target of 159.46 and higher. For selling, evaluate the reaction at 159.46 or 159.97 with confirmation.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4794
• Prev. Close: 4832
• % chg. over the last day: +0.79%

On Monday, gold prices moved into decline, losing more than 1% and falling below 4,800 dollars per ounce. The precious metal lost the gains achieved at the end of last week under pressure from renewed geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The resumption of active hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz became the main trigger for market changes. The sharp rise in energy prices intensified fears of a new wave of global inflation. Rising oil prices increase the likelihood that major central banks will be forced to keep interest rates high for longer or even raise them further. Since gold does not generate interest income, expectations of hawkish policy reduce its investment appeal.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4754, 4700, 4608
• Resistance levels: 4857, 4900, 4963

Gold surged sharply on Friday after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but fell just as quickly after the strait was closed again. On Monday, the price opened with a downward gap, then reached the support level of 4754.29, where buyers showed initiative up to the EMA levels. Under such market conditions, short trades may be considered from the EMA lines with a target of retesting 4754. Long trades are appropriate only if the price impulsively consolidates above the EMA lines again, with a target of 4857.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4754
• Res: 4857
• Note: Short trades may be considered from the EMA lines with a target of retesting 4754. Long trades are appropriate only if the price impulsively consolidates above the EMA lines with a target of 4857.