The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.04.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1693
• Prev. Close: 1.1720
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23%

The euro is holding above 1.17 dollars. The current dynamics reflect investors’ expectations ahead of macroeconomic data: preliminary GDP and inflation reports for the Eurozone are in focus. Outlook points to inflation accelerating in April to 2.9% – the highest level in a year and a half – directly linked to the rising cost of imported energy due to the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict. The ECB will likely keep rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, April 30. The regulator is taking a wait‑and‑see approach, trying to assess how persistent the geopolitically driven inflation shock will be. However, money markets have already shifted toward a more hawkish scenario: two 25‑basis‑point rate hikes in 2026 are fully priced in, with a high probability of a third by December.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1693, 1.1678, 1.1643, 1.1605
• Resistance levels: 1.1716, 1.1763, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro failed to reach the liquidity pool above 1.1763. The price corrected lower and closed below the 1.1716 support level, which could lead to a decline toward 1.1693. But since the price is currently in a demand zone, an impulsive return above 1.1716 will open opportunities for long positions. Therefore, today’s trading plan depends entirely on where the price is relative to 1.1716 and how it reacts to this level.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1693
• Res: 1.1716
• Note: Long trades are best considered after the price re‑establishes itself above 1.1716. While the price remains below 1.1716, look for intraday short setups.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3503
• Prev. Close: 1.3533
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22%

The British pound has stabilized above 1.35 dollars, recovering after a recent decline driven by shifting interest‑rate expectations. Although the Bank of England will likely keep the rate at 3.75% at its upcoming meeting, the March inflation jump to 3.3% has led markets to price in at least two rate hikes by the end of 2026. The situation is complicated by the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict: mutual US-Iran blockades have nearly paralyzed oil shipments, keeping energy prices abnormally high. Domestically, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government faces severe instability ahead of the May 7 elections. The scandal surrounding Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US has increased pressure on the PM and added nervousness for investors.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3525, 1.3501, 1.3474, 1.3447, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Resistance levels: 1.3541, 1.3590, 1.3631

The British pound, like the euro, declined amid moderate US dollar strength. The price is attempting to consolidate below 1.3525, which could lead to a decline toward 1.3501. Under such conditions, intraday short trades may be considered from 1.3525 or from the EMA lines. The long scenario returns only if the price re‑establishes itself above 1.3541.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3525
• Res: 1.3541
• Note: Intraday short trades may be considered from 1.3525 or from the EMAs with confirmation. Long setups return only after the price consolidates above 1.3541.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 159.55
• Prev. Close: 159.42
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08%

At its April 28, 2026, meeting, the Bank of Japan kept the short‑term rate at 0.75%. The decision passed with a 6-3 vote amid unprecedented volatility in the energy market caused by the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Three board members dissented, calling for a rate hike to 1.0% due to rising inflation risks. The central bank radically revised its prediction to reflect the new reality of the energy shock. The core‑inflation expectation for FY2026 was raised from 1.9% to 2.8%, as surging oil prices continue to feed into goods and services. Meanwhile, the GDP growth prediction for the current year was cut in half, from 1.0% to 0.5%, indicating severe pressure on household incomes and corporate profits.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 159.01, 158.55, 158.27
• Resistance levels: 159.48, 159.86, 160.03

The yen strengthened sharply after the Bank of Japan’s prognosis revisions. The price reached the liquidity pool below 159.01, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. This scenario allows for intraday long trades, but with a tight stop‑loss. Profit targets may include the EMA lines or the 159.48 resistance level. An impulsive consolidation below 159.01 will open the way toward 158.55.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.01
• Res: 159.48
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 159.01 with confirmation. For short trades, the price must impulsively consolidate below 159.01.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4695
• Prev. Close: 4680
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

Gold fell to 4,650 dollars per ounce, continuing its downward trend amid cautious diplomatic optimism. Markets are reacting to Iran’s new proposal, delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, suggesting reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade. Although Washington has not yet responded and remains skeptical of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the mere possibility of de‑escalation has reduced demand for gold as a safe‑haven asset. Additional pressure comes from expectations surrounding major central‑bank decisions – the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England. Despite diplomatic maneuvering, the ninth week of the energy shock has already triggered a sustained rise in inflation expectations. This strengthens investor confidence that central banks will be forced to keep interest rates high for much longer.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4608, 4553
• Resistance levels: 4643, 4670, 4701, 4772, 4798, 4825

Gold has impulsively consolidated below 4669 and 4663. Below these levels lies a liquidity pool, but buyers are barely reacting, indicating their absence and strong seller pressure. Under such conditions, short trades are appropriate from 4643 or 4669 with confirmation. Profit target: liquidity below 4608. There are no optimal long‑entry points at the moment.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4608
• Res: 4643
• Note: Intraday short trades may be considered from 4643 or 4669 with confirmation. There are currently no optimal long setups.