The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.04.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1710
• Prev. Close: 1.1676
• % chg. over the last day: -0.29%

The euro fell below 1.17 dollars, reaching a three‑week low amid a stronger US dollar following the Fed’s hawkish meeting. Although the rate remained unchanged, the internal split within the Committee and the refusal of several officials to confirm a future easing path triggered capital inflows into the dollar. Additional pressure on the euro comes from the prolonged conflict with Iran: rising oil prices not only undermine the Eurozone economy but also push investors toward US safe‑haven assets. Today, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged as a forced measure against stagflation driven by rising oil prices.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1643, 1.1605
• Resistance levels: 1.1690, 1.1716, 1.1763, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro has consolidated below 1.17 and is now heading toward the liquidity pocket below 1.1643. The intraday bias favors sellers. Under such conditions, short trades may be considered from the EMA lines or from 1.1690 with a target at 1.1643. Long trades are appropriate only if, after testing 1.1643, the price shows a sharp bullish reaction.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1643
• Res: 1.1690
• Note: Short trades are best considered from EMAs or 1.1690. Longs are appropriate from 1.1643 with confirmation of buyer initiative.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3515
• Prev. Close: 1.3473
• % chg. over the last day: -0.31%

Today, the Bank of England will hold its next monetary policy meeting. The regulator is trapped in a classic stagflation dilemma: while Brent trades above 100 dollars, pushing business inflation expectations to 4.4%, the labor market shows “hidden weakness” amid dangerously high wage growth. The rate is expected to remain at 3.75%, but investors will scrutinize every word from Andrew Bailey to understand whether he is prepared for a new tightening cycle to counter the external shock. The pound has a chance to strengthen toward 1.3500 amid a “hawkish pause” and the yield advantage of UK gilts over US Treasuries.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3447, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Resistance levels: 1.3490, 1.3525, 1.3541, 1.3590, 1.3631

The pound is heading toward the liquidity test below 1.3447. The intraday bias favors sellers, opening opportunities for short trades toward this level. But it is crucial to evaluate the reaction at 1.3447: if buyers show initiative (bullish impulse), and given the MACD divergence, long trades toward 1.3490 may be considered.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3447
• Res: 1.3490
• Note: Intraday shorts from 1.3490 or EMAs with confirmation. Longs may be considered from 1.3447 if buyers react.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 159.55
• Prev. Close: 160.43
• % chg. over the last day: +0.55%

The Japanese yen broke through the psychological 160 per dollar, reaching its lowest level since July 2024. The market effectively ignored the Bank of Japan’s hawkish signals and government verbal interventions, as traders doubt that a 0.75% rate is sufficient to counter massive capital outflows. Even the split within the BoJ board, where three members demanded immediate tightening, failed to stop speculative selling. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated readiness for direct FX interventions, but investors bet that in the context of a global energy shock and high US rates, any attempt by Tokyo to support the yen will have only short‑lived effects. The Strait of Hormuz conflict continues to pressure the yen through rising energy‑import costs, making it the worst‑performing G7 currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 160.46, 159.86, 159.42, 159.01, 158.55, 158.27
• Resistance levels: 161.29

The yen is trading in a supply zone where authorities previously conducted FX interventions. This cannot be ruled out now either. But since the price shows no seller reaction yet, shorting in anticipation of intervention is not advisable. The intraday bias favors buyers, so if authorities stay out of the market, the yen may continue weakening toward 161.29.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 160.46
• Res: 161.29
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 160.46 or EMAs with confirmation. No optimal short entries at the moment.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4600
• Prev. Close: 4543
• % chg. over the last day: -1.25%

Gold continued its decline on Wednesday, falling below 4550 dollars per ounce. This is the lowest level in a month, driven by the Fed’s hawkish stance and the ongoing energy crisis. Donald Trump’s decision to reject Iran’s proposal without addressing the nuclear issue cemented the blockade of Persian Gulf shipments, pushing oil prices higher and forcing central banks to prepare for a prolonged period of high rates. Rising bond yields and the hawkish split within the Fed make holding gold less attractive, as it does not generate interest income. Amid tightening rhetoric from the Bank of Japan and tomorrow’s ECB and BoE meetings, investors are exiting precious metals en masse.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4542, 4528
• Resistance levels: 4580, 4608, 4643, 4670, 4701, 4772, 4798, 4825

Gold reached the liquidity pool below 4528 yesterday, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. Buyer activity is also visible at the 4542 support level. Given the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a corrective rise toward 4580 or even 4608. Intraday long trades may be considered toward these levels, but with reduced risk. For shorts, evaluate price reaction at 4580 or 4608.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4542
• Res: 4590
• Note: Intraday long trades may be considered toward 4590 or 4608. Shorts may be taken from these levels with confirmation.