The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.1745
- Prev. Close: 1.1691
- % chg. over the last day: -0.46%
Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, reaching its highest level in nearly four years and confirming preliminary estimates. The improvement was driven by a notable increase in output amid recovering demand: new orders grew at the fastest pace in several years, and exports showed positive momentum for the first time in a long period. The euro continues to hold near 1.17, with markets increasingly pricing in ECB rate hikes in the coming months. Investors expect at least several tightening steps this year. Although the ECB left policy unchanged at its latest meeting, officials continue to signal the possibility of further tightening due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic risks.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.1559, 1.1605
- Resistance levels: 1.1690, 1.1720, 1.1776, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894
The euro fell below 1.1690, indicating strong intraday selling pressure. Investors are fleeing into the US dollar amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, which weighs on risk assets. Technically, EUR/USD may decline toward 1.1659, where buyers were previously active. A sharp return above 1.1690 could trigger a move toward 1.1720.
Alternative scenario:- Trend: Downtrend
- Sup: 1.1559
- Res: 1.1690
- Note: Long positions are appropriate only after an impulsive return above 1.1690. While the price remains below this level, intraday focus is on selling toward 1.1659.
News feed for: 2026.05.05
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
- US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.3591
- Prev. Close: 1.3531
- % chg. over the last day: -0.44%
The pound traded slightly below 1.36, remaining close to its two‑month highs. Investors are focused on the upcoming UK local elections, where polls suggest the ruling party may face a significant drop in support. Rising oil prices, driven by incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, added to overall market tension. Markets currently price roughly a 50% probability of a Bank of England rate hike in June, expecting further tightening later in the year. However, uncertainty remains high after the recent decision to keep rates unchanged. The BoE governor stressed the need for a balanced approach, warning that waiting too long for clear inflation signals could lead to delayed action.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.3522, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
- Resistance levels: 1.3571, 1.3631, 1.3670
GBP/USD fell to support at 1.3522, where buyers are attempting to defend the level – but selling pressure remains stronger. This is the third test of the level since yesterday, and each subsequent bullish reaction is weaker. A break below 1.3522 opens the path toward the demand zone near 1.3463. While above 1.3522, the pair may correct toward 1.3540 and consolidate.
Alternative scenario:- Trend: Neutral
- Sup: 1.3522
- Res: 1.3571
- Note: Short positions are appropriate after a confirmed break below 1.3522. No optimal long setups at the moment.
No news for today
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 156.72
- Prev. Close: 157.24
- % chg. over the last day: +0.33%
On Tuesday, the yen weakened again, breaking above 157 per dollar. Last week, Tokyo reportedly spent around $35 billion to support the yen, lifting it from the critical 160 level. Although no official confirmation of intervention followed, investors remember that Japan’s Ministry of Finance often conducts repeated attacks on speculators during low‑liquidity holiday periods. However, the recent yen rebound is gradually fading as the US dollar strengthens amid renewed Middle East hostilities.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 155.68, 155.34
- Resistance levels: 157.19, 157.48, 158.55
The yen weakened and is now trading within the 157.19-157.48 supply zone. Notably, the price has rejected this zone four times before, but seller reactions are now almost absent – indicating a likely upward breakout. Under these conditions, long positions may be considered after an impulsive consolidation above 157.48. Short setups are unlikely, as the intraday bias would need to shift.
Alternative scenario:- Trend: Downtrend
- Sup: 155.68
- Res: 157.19
- Note: Long positions may be considered after a confirmed breakout above 157.48. No optimal short setups at the moment.
No news for today
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 4624
- Prev. Close: 4523
- % chg. over the last day: -2.23%
On Monday, gold fell to around $4520 per ounce, hitting its lowest level since late March. Pressure intensified amid escalating Middle East tensions, which increased inflation risks and affected interest‑rate expectations. Reports of a missile strike on a US warship near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian claims of controlling parts of the waterway heightened market anxiety. The prolonged conflict has driven energy prices sharply higher, raising the likelihood of prolonged or tighter monetary policy. Since the start of the confrontation, gold has lost about 13% of its value. Meanwhile, central banks continued increasing their gold reserves in Q1.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 4518, 4482, 4431
- Resistance levels: 4562, 4611, 4658
Gold remains under pressure from rising government bond yields. Technically, the price has fallen to support at 4518, where buyers are attempting to defend the level. MACD divergence suggests a corrective rebound is possible up to 4562. However, the bias remains bearish, so while the price is below 4562, intraday focus is on selling toward 4518 and lower. Long positions are possible from 4518 only if buyers show strong bullish initiative.
Alternative scenario:- Trend: Downtrend
- Sup: 4518
- Res: 4562
- Note: Intraday focus is on selling from 4562 or EMA lines with confirmation. Long positions are possible from 4518 only if buyers show a clear bullish reaction.
News feed for: 2026.05.05
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.