The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.06.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1538
• Prev. Close: 1.1543
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

The euro strengthened slightly against the US dollar, recovering losses from previous weeks amid broad weakening of the American currency. An additional strong driver for the European economy was a 3% drop in global oil prices, which significantly reduced stagflation risks for the region, which is critically dependent on energy imports. Market sentiment was further supported by strong macroeconomic data from Germany for April. Industrial production in the country rose by 0.4% month‑on‑month (m/m), showing the strongest increase in the past five months and fully matching expectations. At the same time, the currency received a strong boost from foreign trade data. These signals of recovery in the EU’s economic engine coincided with 100% market confidence that the ECB will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points at this Thursday’s meeting, which ensured a confident intraday rally for the euro.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1528, 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Resistance levels: 1.1575, 1.1610, 1.1630, 1.1651

From a technical analysis standpoint, the situation for EUR/USD has barely changed. The euro is forming a flat accumulation range with boundaries at 1.1528-1.1575. Yesterday, the price bounced off the lower boundary of the range, increasing the probability of growth today toward the upper boundary. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered intraday from the support level at 1.1528 or from the EMA lines with a target of 1.1575. For sell trades, we evaluate the price reaction at the 1.1575 resistance.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1528
• Res: 1.1575
• Note: Buy trades can be considered intraday from 1.1528 or from the EMA lines with a target of 1.1575. For sell trades, evaluate the reaction at 1.1575.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3340
• Prev. Close: 1.3379
• % chg. over the last day: +0.30%

The British pound sterling showed a confident recovery, once again rising toward 1.34 USD and rebounding from a three‑week low. The main driver of the pound’s strengthening was a sharp improvement in global market sentiment in the Middle East. Earlier, the escalation of the conflict and the spike in oil prices triggered strong inflationary fears in the UK, causing money markets to fully price in a Bank of England rate hike in September by at least 25 basis points, as well as a high probability of another tightening round by year‑end. However, internal division within the regulator persists. MPC member Alan Taylor publicly opposed further rate hikes, calling the current monetary policy “sufficiently restrictive” for long‑term containment of inflationary pressure.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3361, 1.3336, 1.3309, 1.3252
• Resistance levels: 1.3388, 1.3412, 1.3459, 1.3483, 1.3507

The British pound looks stronger than many other risk assets. The price is currently forming a flat accumulation range with boundaries at 1.3361-1.3412. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered today from 1.3361 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For sell trades, we evaluate the reaction at 1.3412.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3361
• Res: 1.3412
• Note: Buy trades from 1.3361 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For sell trades, evaluate the reaction at 1.3412.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 160.14
• Prev. Close: 160.35
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

The Japanese yen showed elevated volatility around 160.3 yen per dollar, remaining dangerously close to its multi‑year low recorded in July 2024. The national currency ignored strong domestic macroeconomic data showing that wholesale inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in three years. Producer prices in Japan (CGPI Index) jumped by 6.1% year‑on‑year in May, significantly exceeding market expectations of 5.5% and the April reading of 5.3%. Fresh price records strengthened market confidence that the Bank of Japan will be forced to take decisive measures to combat imported inflation and the depreciation of the national currency. Investor attention is focused on next week’s regulator meeting, where expectations now include not only a rate hike but also the most hawkish rhetoric possible from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 160.26, 160.05, 159.83, 159.67, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65
• Resistance levels: 160.53

Technically, the picture has not changed. The yen has consolidated above the psychological level of 160.26 and is now aiming for liquidity above 160.53, where Japanese authorities previously conducted large‑scale currency intervention. The intraday bias remains with buyers, so the most appropriate approach is to look for buy trades from 160.26 or from the EMA lines or the trendline. For sell trades, we evaluate the reaction at 160.53 and do not rule out new currency injections by Japanese officials to support the exchange rate. In the event of intervention, the price may sharply strengthen toward 159.14, and judging by volumes and divergence, the spring is already compressing.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 160.26
• Res: 160.53
• Note: Buy trades are appropriate from 160.26 or from the EMA lines or the trendline. For sell trades, evaluate the reaction at 160.53 and do not rule out new currency injections.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4331
• Prev. Close: 4260
• % chg. over the last day: -1.67%

Gold prices fell below the 4,200 USD per ounce mark, hitting the lowest level since March 23. A new round of escalation in the Middle East, triggered by US retaliatory strikes on targets in Iran after the destruction of an American helicopter, caused a spike in oil prices and sharply intensified global inflation fears. The return of a strict blockade of the Strait of Hormuz jeopardized recent fragile ceasefire agreements, triggering panic in commodity markets. Expectations of rising interest rates reduce the appeal of the non‑yielding precious metal. The situation is worsened by a strong May US labor market report, which strengthened market expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of 2026, shifting investor focus to the release of fresh US CPI data.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4169, 4101
• Resistance levels: 4314, 4304, 4343, 4403, 4429, 4467

Gold is once again under selling pressure. With such bearish momentum, the price may update the yearly low as early as this week. Technically, a corrective rebound is brewing – indicated by strong MACD divergence. The current support for the price is the 4169 level. If this level is broken, the price will move to test liquidity below the yearly low, meaning below 4101. Under such market conditions, traders are advised to look for sell trades from the 4274 resistance or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buy trades at the moment.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4169
• Res: 4274
• Note: Sell trades are recommended from the 4274 resistance or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are no optimal buy entry points now.