The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.06.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1577
• Prev. Close: 1.1567
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08%

Over the past week, the euro has shown moderate strengthening, recovering against the general weakness of the US dollar amid geopolitical optimism. The euro received fundamental support thanks to the ECB’s “hawkish” pivot, but its further short‑term dynamics depend entirely on the outcome of diplomatic negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a deal that could unblock the Strait of Hormuz and lower energy prices remain the key market driver. A breakdown of the deal with Iran may trigger a new wave of oil price growth and strengthen the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. From the standpoint of macro statistics, the hard data to be published this week (industrial production, trade balance, and construction volumes) will most likely show upward dynamics in absolute terms. However, it is too early to celebrate: this growth is largely driven by the inflation component and the low‑base effect after the spring energy shock in the Middle East.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1586, 1.1542, 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Resistance levels: 1.1610, 1.1630, 1.1651

The euro strengthened sharply at Monday’s open amid a decline in the dollar due to the signing of the peace agreement between Iran and the United States. The intraday bias is on the buyers’ side. With high probability, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 1.1631 or 1.1650. Under such market conditions, long positions are best considered from the support level 1.1586 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.1631 or 1.1651.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1586
• Res: 1.1610
• Note: Long positions are best considered from the support level 1.1586 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.1631 or 1.1651.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3412
• Prev. Close: 1.3403
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

In the United Kingdom, economic and political pressure on Keir Starmer’s government is intensifying ahead of a critically important week, culminating in the Bank of England meeting on June 18. Macroeconomic statistics put the regulator in a deadlock. On one hand, inflationary pressure remains persistent – in the first four months of 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by almost 4% year‑over‑year. On the other hand, macro data signal an economic cooling, which theoretically should restrain inflation. Under these conditions, the swap market almost completely rules out changes in monetary policy this week, pricing the base rate as stable (3.75%). The probability of a 25 bps hike in July is only 36% (markets have priced in 9 bps of tightening). The first full 25 bps hike is priced only for November, with another step expected in December (an additional 12.5 bps discounted). Meanwhile, 10 Downing Street is mired in a deep internal political crisis that directly affects investors’ fiscal expectations. On Thursday, June 18, simultaneously with the Bank of England’s decision, a by‑election will be held in the Makerfield constituency. The main Labour candidate is the charismatic Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. A victory would return him to the House of Commons and, according to insiders, allow his team to begin openly preparing for a bid for the prime minister’s office.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3433, 1.3379, 1.3336, 1.3309, 1.3252
• Resistance levels: 1.3459, 1.3483, 1.3507

The British pound, like the euro, strengthened sharply at Monday’s open. The price has now reached the resistance level 1.3459, but sellers’ reaction is weak, increasing the likelihood of further growth. The intraday bias is on the buyers’ side. Under such market conditions, long positions should be considered from 1.3433 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.3459 and 1.3483.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3433
• Res: 1.3459
• Note: Long positions should be considered from 1.3433 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.3459 and 1.3483.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 159.92
• Prev. Close: 160.22
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18%

The Bank of Japan meeting, which will conclude on June 16, 2026, will be the central macroeconomic event of the week. The market prices a 25‑basis‑point rate hike to 1.0% as almost a done deal. Moreover, investors estimate the probability of another tightening round by the end of 2026 at around 80%. The regulator’s decision looks paradoxical against the backdrop of recent statistics. Tokyo’s May CPI, which serves as a leading indicator for the entire country, showed a slowdown in the headline index to 1.4%, and the core index (excluding fresh food) to 1.3%. The core‑core index (excluding food and energy) fell to 1.6%. All core inflation measures remain steadily below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Nevertheless, Washington is actively pressuring Tokyo to raise rates to strengthen the yen, while simultaneously pushing its own Federal Reserve toward policy easing.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 159.76, 159.60, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65
• Resistance levels: 160.28, 160.53, 161.29

The Japanese yen is forming a wide flat accumulation in the 159.76-160.28 range. The price is currently right in the middle of the range, which complicates the search for optimal entry points. Under such market conditions, for short positions we evaluate the price reaction at the upper boundary 160.28. For long positions, we need to see initiative from 159.76 or 159.60.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.76
• Res: 160.28
• Note: For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction at the upper boundary of the flat at 160.28. For long positions, we need to see initiative from 159.76 or 159.60.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4218
• Prev. Close: 4218
• % chg. over the last day: 0.0%

On Monday, the precious metals market saw a sharp reversal: gold prices jumped, confidently breaking above 4300 dollars per troy ounce. The precious metal has been rising for the third consecutive day, fully recovering two weeks of losses on news of the peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The official announcement of the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices tumbling to a two‑month low (around 80 dollars per barrel). This instantly removed the risks of uncontrolled global inflation from the agenda. Central banks no longer need to aggressively raise interest rates. Lower expectations for government bond yields have returned capital to zero‑yielding gold. The ceremonial signing of the final document is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland. The agreement will formalize the lifting of the naval blockade, the gradual easing of economic sanctions against Tehran, and the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure under international supervision.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4281, 4177, 4130, 4031, 3877
• Resistance levels: 4344, 4403, 4429, 4467

Gold opened Monday with an upside price gap. The intraday bias is on the buyers’ side, increasing the likelihood of a liquidity test above 4344. A quick gap‑fill should not be expected – for that, sellers must show activity from one of the levels. Under such market conditions, long positions are considered from 4281, but with confirmation. For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction in the zone above 4344.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4281
• Res: 4344
• Note: Long positions are considered from 4281, but with confirmation. For short positions, we evaluate the price reaction in the zone above 4344.